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Another "Amazing"?, Sports Medals, Game/Test, Magic Asteroid, Gold Tout, Qi Gonger Bows out, Those Fairies Are Back, and Off to Korea!
Richard Saunders, President of the Australian Skeptics Inc., sent us this report on a "psychic" who has borrowed part of my name without permission:
Richard Lead and I from the Australian Skeptics went to see the stage show of "The Amazing Valda." We sat in the audience of about 500 and wondered what she might have up her sleeve. We're always on the lookout for a new trick or angle, and who knows? We may even discover a real psychic. Okay, but this just proves again that skill is not required when the audience needs these things to be true. Valda, despite her lack of talent, has her own radio call-in show in Australia, plus a newspaper column. She doesn't have to be good, just free of ethics and of respect for her victims.
You'll recall that we mentioned here the BioMagnetics' website, which proudly announces an endorsement of their flummery by Australian Kevin Dalton, who they say was "awarded the Australian Sports Medal by Queen Elizabeth II for his use of the Davis and Rawls magnetics with sports participants, including Australian Olympic winners." We wondered about the prestige of that award, given in the category "Miscellaneous" (?) to Mr. Dalton, then reader Tara Ogawa informed us that the "Australian Sports Medal" may not be quite as impressive as it sounds. Says Tara:
Over 18,000 "Australian Sports Medals" were progressively distributed and presented during the year 2000. If you consider that Australia only has a population of about 19 million, that means that during the year 2000, about one in a thousand people received one... Thank you for that analysis, Tara. I'll add my observation that according to those figures, that medal was awarded to some 50 persons a day, too! Just think of the postage!
Reader Germán Buela writes that the British musician Mike Oldfield has set up a web site with what he calls, a "telepathy game." It's at http://www.mikeoldfield.com/poll.htm . Players are asked to look at four shapes and guess which shape Mike chose. The page says, "... usually the first answer that comes into your mind is correct, so trust yourself." Germán opines:
It's little things like these that help propagate magical thinking: people might think that this game, lacking proper controls, serves as a scientific test for telepathy. At first sight I see a problem. The first shape that "comes into my mind" is effectively the one that most people have voted (once you make your choice, you can see how many people have chosen each shape), and I had suspected that right away. This is not due to telepathy but to the shape itself and its location: you are led to pick that one. There is an important factor in the cost of an advertisement in magazines, apart from size: its location, and I don't mean the obvious places like back cover, centerfold, etc., but because we tend to end up looking at a certain spot on an opened page. I think the same thing worked here, and I wouldn't be at all surprised that it worked on Mike as well, which might seem like a confirmation of telepathy when his choice is revealed in January. Putting in my own expertise here, I'll tell you that by far the most-chosen of the five standard ESP-cards symbols (circle, plus-sign, wavy lines, square, and five-pointed star) is the star. Since this "game" involves only four symbols, and one is star-like, I'll bet on that one to be the winner. Yes, Germán, this is a really poor "game," and a worse "test."
So few astronomers understand astrology or the archetypal power of names. Is their seeming arbitrary naming the factor in creating the vibration? Or is the vibration already there, waiting to be acknowledged, and so strong that the asteroid itself dictates its name to the astronomer via the circuitry of the unconscious mind that links one to the holographic mysteries of the universe? I consider all that doubtful. How could asteroid #3163 (1981QM) have been named "Randi"? What possible set of vibrations would bring that about....?
Reader Steve Vaughn writes:
Reading your latest column on your site I was reminded of a man in my Navy Reserves unit in San Jose, California in the mid 80's. This gentleman, a Sea Bee, claimed that he could dowse for gold! Not only that, but if someone brought in a river map he could dowse the map and mark down where gold could be located and all he asked for was 10% of what was found. Steve, this is the old racing-tout game played with gold.... In effect, the guy can't lose, because those who are unsuccessful don't get back to him, and those who are winners sometimes will pay off. Yet another swindle I didn't think of....
A man who had seen me on Chinese TV, sent in a list of various ailments he thought I had, a list which was very wrong. As usual, he ascribed to me the problems that a 74-year-old man often has, but that I don't. In response to his application for the JREF million-dollar prize, which was sent in by his daughter, and which said that her father could diagnose a person just by seeing their photo, I replied as I usually do to such a claim. This claim is very, very, common here at the JREF. I sent him ten photos of persons I know, simply asking him to tell me whether each person shown was dead or alive, rather than having to go through evaluating the long, convoluted, vague, descriptions such as, "Feels tired and weak at night, liver unbalance and bile excess, tingling in ears" that are part of the usual diagnosis. The simplified test has never been accepted by any of these "diagnosticians," who usually just stop corresponding at that point. But this man offered reasons for not doing such a basic test. Headed, "Qigong is not a divination or necromancy," the reply came, written by his daughter:
Dear Mr. Randi, I responded:
I believe that if your father can diagnose illnesses, as he claims he can, he should be able to diagnose death rather positively. This is the easiest, most direct, test for claims of diagnosis. You have refused it, and that is your decision. Please recognize this procedure for what it is. We use it in order to avoid getting involved with very complicated exchanges and arguments. It's like summarily eliminating race-cars that have no tires, rather than having to examine them for safety attachments and conformity with track rules. Even I, with no medical training, can detect the symptom known as "death." If this man, who says he can diagnose complicated defects such as blocked arteries and tumors, cannot diagnose death, his technique needs work. We've offered other similar applicants the opportunity of determining which of a selection of persons might have an artificial leg, and they've always told us that "spiritually" the original leg is still there, and still gives out "vibrations" to them. They are experienced at handling problems like this, and they know that their followers are happy to accept their reasoning. It is likely that we will not hear back from this applicant. This is the choice that most of these folks take when faced with a simple, direct, uncomplicated test. When we're asked why we don't issue a list of applicants for the prize, we cite this as one of the reasons. Did this applicant actually apply? Well, almost. Do you begin to see the problem?
Back in 1922, a remarkable book, "The Coming of the Fairies," by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, was published in the U.K. I say "remarkable," because it seemed not possible that Sir Arthur actually meant it to be taken seriously but he did. It dealt with the photos taken by cousins Elsie Wright and Frances Griffiths, five years earlier, which they claimed were of fairies and other supernatural creatures they had encountered in Cottingley Glen, near their home in Bradford, Yorkshire. [Aside: at the JREF, we have the original first edition of the Conan Doyle book that was presented, with inscription, to Elsie Wright, by the author.]
A distinguished writer of the day, Maurice Hewlett (1861-1923), raised some objections to the fairy photos, which were then known as the Carpenter photos because Conan Doyle had concealed the girls' real identities. Hewlett's objections were in some ways well-founded, in others, not. Certainly they were far better than the responses to them offered by theosophist Edward L. Gardner, Conan Doyle's "researcher" and spokesman. I'm interested in the fact that neither side in this argument seemed adequately competent. Taken from the 1922 Conan Doyle book, Mr. Hewlett's contentions were as follows:
The stage which Sir A. Conan Doyle has reached at present is one of belief in the genuineness of what one may call the Carpenter photographs, which showed the other day to the readers of the Strand Magazine two ordinary girls in familiar intercourse with winged beings, as near as I can judge, about eighteen inches high. Randi comments: First bad guess. Unless the girls had very big heads, those fairies were no more than 10 to 11 inches in height. A poor start to a critique.
If he [Conan Doyle] believes in the photographs, two inferences can be made, so to speak, to stand up: one, that he must believe also in the existence of the beings; two, that a mechanical operation, where human agency has done nothing but prepare a plate, focus an object, press a button, and print a picture, has rendered visible something which is not otherwise visible to the common naked eye. Hewlett could not have known about infra-red photography, which only developed in the 1920s, but his second point is certainly not valid. And, fairies were said to be visible to innocent little girls, and both girls had claimed they actually saw them. His first point is obviously true, yet rather pointless; Sir Arthur believed in almost everything, so fairies were not a leap of faith for him.
That is really all Sir Arthur has to tell us. He believes the photographs to be genuine. The rest follows. But why does he believe it? Because the young ladies tell him that they are genuine. Alas! Here, Hewlett is very probably right. Conan Doyle simply could not bring himself to accept that little girls would lie, particularly to him. He was a perfect foil for their game.
Sir Arthur cannot, he tells us, go into Yorkshire himself to cross-examine the young ladies, even if he wishes to cross-examine them, which does not appear. However, he sends in his place a friend, Mr. E. L. Gardner, also of hospitable mind, with settled opinions upon theosophy and kindred subjects, but deficient, it would seem, in logical faculty. Mr. Gardner has had himself photographed in the place where the young ladies photographed each other, or thereabouts. No winged beings circled about him, and one wonders why Mr. Gardner (a) was photographed, (b) reproduced the photograph in the Strand Magazine. Gardner certainly was not very bright, and hopelessly crippled by his devout belief in Theosophy a religion which preached, and still preaches, the literal reality of fairies. In addition, he was the agent of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, a paramount figure of that time, and pleasing the boss has always been a high priority with some people. However, I have no difficulty understanding why Gardner would want his photograph to appear in one of England's leading popular magazines....! Hewlett refers in what follows, to a current news item of the day:
The only answer I can find is suggested to me by the appearance of the Virgin and Child to certain shepherds in a peach-orchard at Verona. The shepherds told their parish priest that the Virgin Mary had indeed appeared to them on a moonlit night, had accepted a bowl of milk from them, had then picked a peach from one of the trees and eaten it. The priest visited the spot in their company, and in due course picked up a peach-stone. That settled it. Obviously the Madonna had been really there, for here was the peach-stone to prove it. I don't find that a fair objection, at all. Gardner was quite properly showing readers the location where the girls' photographs had been taken, and providing an idea of scale by simply being in the photograph. Hewlett is not on firm ground here. He continues:
The line to take about a question of the sort is undoubtedly that of least resistance. Which is the harder of belief, the faking of a photograph or the objective existence of winged beings eighteen inches high? Undoubtedly, to a plain man, the latter; but assume the former. If such beings exist, if they are occasionally visible, and if a camera is capable of revealing to all the world what is hidden from most people in it, we are not yet able to say that the Carpenter photographs are photographs of such beings. For we, observe, have not seen such beings. True: but we have all seen photographs of beings in rapid motion horses racing, greyhounds coursing a hare, men running over a field, and so on. We have seen pictures of these things, and we have seen photographs of them; and the odd thing is that never, never by any chance does the photograph of a running object in the least resemble a picture of it. I find this difficult to understand, let alone accept. Hewlett was out of his depth here. Or perhaps he'd not seen many photographs. In any case, he missed far more obvious aspects that clearly damn the photos as fakes. See my references elsewhere in these pages.
The horse, dog, or man, in fact, in the photograph does not look to be in motion at all. And rightly so, because in the instant of being photographed it was not in motion. So infinitely rapid is the action of light on the plate that it is possible to isolate a fraction of time in a rapid flight and to record it. Directly you combine a series of photographs in sequence, and set them moving, you have a semblance of motion exactly like that which you have in a picture. Nonsense. Everything depends on the speed of the camera's shutter, and whether or not the aperture and the sensitivity of the film is enough to register the figure adequately.
Now, the beings circling round a girl's head and shoulders in the Carpenter photograph are in picture flight, and not in photographic flight. That is certain. They are in the approved pictorial, or plastic, convention of dancing. They are not well rendered by any means. They are stiff compared with, let us say, the whirling gnomes on the outside wrapper of Punch [a popular humor magazine of the day, still published]. They have very little of the wild, irresponsible vagary of a butterfly. But they are an attempt to render an aerial dance pretty enough in a small way. The photographs are too small to enable me to decide whether they are painted on cardboard or modelled in the round; but the figures are not moving. I'll allow my readers to refer to the comments I've already published, both in my book, "Flim-Flam!" and on previous pages of this site, to see just how lame this criticism is. But what follows in an attempt at rebuttal by E.L. Gardner, is even worse.
I could have wished that Mr. Hewlett's somewhat playful criticism of the genuineness of the photographs of fairies appearing in the Strand Magazine Christmas number had been more clearly defined. The only serious point raised is the difference between photographic and pictorial representation of motion Mr. Hewlett maintaining that the latter is in evidence in the photographs. No, Mr. Gardner, "very clever studio work" as we now know was not at all needed. There was no double exposure (except for an accidental one, as I pointed out previously) but there certainly could not have ever been any authoritative statement by any "expert" that "set-up models" were not used. How could that have possibly been established?
Also, certain points that needed elucidation were the haze above and at the side of the child's head, and the blurred appearance of the waterfall as compared with the clarity of the figures, etc. An inspection of the spots and photographs of their surroundings was surely the only way to clear up some of these. As a matter of fact, the waterfall proved to be about twenty feet behind the child, and hence out of focus, and some large rocks at the same distance in the rear, at the side of the fall, were found to be the cause of the haziness. The separate photographs, of which only one is published of each place, confirm entirely the genuineness of the sites not the genuineness of the fairies. This incredible statement by Gardner surely demonstrates his ignorance. That "haziness" is due to the fact that when this negative was printed, the darkroom technician used the only method available at the time, to bring out the face of the girl Frances. It's called, "dodging." Since Frances was rather in the dark, behind the figures, a regular "flat" printing of the negative which would have shown the figures and the waterfall appropriately, would have rendered the girl's face very darkly. In order to bring it out lighter, while the printing paper was being exposed to the light, the technician would have used a finger or a tool to shield that portion of the paper. That's an inexact procedure, and often makes an indistinct "halo" effect which is exactly what is shown here. I have seen many different prints of this photos, and it's evident that they were all "dodged" in the printing process. The "rocks" had nothing to do with the haziness, as Gardner claimed. He continued:
In commenting on the photography of a moving object, Mr. Hewlett makes the astonishing statement that at the instant of being photographed it is not in motion (Mr. H.'s italics). I wonder when it is, and what would happen if a camera was exposed then! Of course the moving object is in motion during exposure, no matter whether the time be a fiftieth or a millionth part of a second, though Mr. Hewlett is by no means the only one to fall into this error. And each of the fairy figures in the negative discloses signs of movement. This was one of the first points determined. Gardner is quite correct here, until he gets to the part where he says that there is movement to be seen in the figures. There is not. The fairies are sharp and clear. Those flapping wings, supposedly keeping the fairies suspended, would have been moving so fast, that even at 1/50th of a second shutter time, there would have been blurring. And very little research was needed to determine that the camera (a "Midg" box-camera) had a fastest speed of just 1/10th of a second. That's why the waterfall, moving quickly, is blurred more than distance alone would call for, and the folks at Kodak, in the UK, estimated for me that the exposure was more like two seconds, given the subdued light. Gardner continued:
I admit at once, of course, that this does not meet the criticism that the fairies display much more grace in action than is to be found in the ordinary snapshot of a moving horse or man. But if we are here dealing with fairies whose bodies must be presumed to be of a purely ethereal and plastic nature, and not with skeleton-framed mammals at all, is it such a very illogical mind that accepts the exquisite grace therein found as a natural quality that is never absent? In view of the overwhelming evidence of genuineness now in hand this seems to be the truth. Words fail me to comment on that vapidity....... With regard to the last query raised the child looking at the camera instead of at the fairies Alice [Frances] was entirely unsophisticated respecting the proper photographic attitude. For her, cameras were much more novel than fairies, and never before had she seen one used so close to her. Strange to us as it may seem, at the moment it interested her the most. Apropos, would a faker, clever enough to produce such a photograph, commit the elementary blunder of not posing his subject? Gardner was well aware that the two girls regularly used the camera as a plaything, Elsie's father being an amateur photographer who developed and printed at his home. There was very little novelty in the situation to Frances. We now know that there were many, many, failures of the girls' efforts at trick photography, and Gardner himself had a mass of negative plates from which he prepared lantern-slides for his Theosophy talk on the Cottingley fairies. We have, at the JREF, the original box of slides that he used, and though several obvious and damning errors show up in those photos, Gardner was blind to them, due to his need to believe. Here ends Gardner's contribution. Conan Doyle takes up the discussion:
Among other interesting and weighty opinions, which were in general agreement with our contentions, was one by Mr. H. A. Staddon of Goodmayes, a gentleman who had made a particular hobby of fakes in photography. His report is too long and too technical for inclusion, but, under the various headings of composition, dress, development, density, lighting, poise, texture, plate, atmosphere, focus, halation, he goes very completely into the evidence, coming to the final conclusion that when tried by all these tests the chances are not less than 80 per cent in favour of authenticity. Conan Doyle's readers were not told that the Kodak lab in London had also been consulted on this matter, and declined to give an opinion. Bearing in mind the traditional politeness embraced by the British at this period of history, one must ask why this most prestigious set of experts would have chosen not to comment. Other "experts" perhaps did, though we cannot know how many were consulted before a positive opinion was obtained by Gardner.
It may be added that in the course of exhibiting these photographs (in the interests of the Theosophical bodies with which Mr. Gardner is connected), it has sometimes occurred that the plates have been enormously magnified upon the screen. In one instance, at Wakefield, the powerful lantern used threw an exceptionally large picture on a huge sheet. The operator, a very intelligent man who had taken a skeptical attitude, was entirely converted to the truth of the photographs, for, as he pointed out, such an enlargement would show the least trace of a scissors irregularity or of any artificial detail, and would make it absurd to suppose that a dummy figure could remain undetected. The lines were always beautifully fine and unbroken. Well, we now know, from the fakers themselves, that scissors were used, that these were cut-outs, and that the experts accepted by Conan Doyle were either wrong, or knew better but were trying to gain the favor of Sir Arthur. I prefer to believe the former of these two possibilities.
Had to mention this: I just bought an extended service agreement on a computer program. "Extended" hardly expresses it. Looking at the parameters of the warranty, I see that it's good for another "99,993 days." That means that in 273 years, nine months, and five days (give or take a day or so), I'll have to renew....
I'm preparing to go to Korea to tape eight TV shows that will investigate the claims of Asian "psychics" and "healers." There may be a gap in the posting of updates here, though I'm trying to get enough material submitted to last until I get back January 20th. Happy 2003, everyone!
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