December 20, 2002

Teller of Bad Fortunes, No Santa Claus?, Politically Incorrect Astrology, the Sulphur Queen, Newton Lumps, Eclipse Data, Cheri Blair Again, More Ark Stuff, Andrus Illusion, and Happy Solstice!

Reader Karel de Pauw, via Jan Willem Nienhuys, sent me an interesting article by David Newnham in the December 14th issue of The Guardian UK newspaper. Here is a short extract from "Hostages to Fortune":

Ask a psychologist, a sociologist or an anthropologist what makes us superstitious - why we queue in market towns for tarot readings, why we fill in our lottery tickets with the same lucky ballpoint every time, and risk back injury avoiding the cracks between paving stones - and they will tell you the same thing. When people feel that they have no control over events, they will suspend their belief in the rational and step into a world where the rules seem more flexible.

If levels of superstitious behaviour and interest in magic are a reliable measure of the extent to which we feel in control of our destiny, then these are worrying times. A century ago, it was confidently predicted that science and technology would drive out all superstition and religion within a generation or so. But science gave us the worldwide web, and the web hums with magic - with numerology and geomancy and 101 ways to win the lottery.

In the wake of Harry Potter, witches and spooks have cast their spell over children's television, and even science fiction now comes in Druid garb. A recent survey of British habits showed that we are as eager as ever to touch wood and toss salt - so long as it's sea salt, of course. And whenever a major sporting event takes place, we are left in no doubt that everybody involved, from the canniest professional to the lowliest fan, is engaged in a daily round of rituals that makes the average Haitian voodoo ceremony seem a lacklustre affair.

Mr. Newnham makes excellent points here. His Guardian article describes his visit to a rather garrulous fortune-teller, and his opinions on her abilities. He brings in the work of B. F. Skinner, and relates it to human ritual practices. Well done! You can see the entire article at http://www.guardian.co.uk/weekend/story/0,3605,858608,00.html


Well, it's good to know that honesty-under-questioning is still with us, even in South Florida. A five-year-old's favorite substitute teacher at Forest Hills school, in Coral Springs, last week told her kindergarten class that there is no Santa Claus! Pursued by the media, the alarmed parent of the child said that she quickly assured her daughter that Santa is real and would be delivering a load of gifts on Christmas morning. "But I feel like no matter what I do or say now, the seed of doubt has been planted in [her] head," the mother said to the Sun-Sentinel newspaper. "I'm not sure if I'll ever be able to undo it . . . . "

The Sun-Sentinel reported that other local parents had also complained that their kids came home from school questioning them about Santa. But one mother said she told her daughter that "she should stick to her beliefs, no matter what anyone says." That's the way! Ignore facts and reality. Support mythology, encourage lying and deception! Is that the American way?

Now, just to be clear here, let me tell you that I have no problems with the Santa Claus legend being told to children - up to about five years of age. It's a fun thing, used with kids who haven't yet learned to recognize the difference between reality and fantasy. Snow White and Winnie the Pooh are part of this make-believe period. I'm all for it. But soon after that age, humans begin to examine the world more closely. They find that things don't always happen for the best, that there are disappointments and reversals of expectations. These are the growing-up pains. And certainly, if a child asks a question, in most cases the correct answer should be provided. This teacher was asked; she answered. She gets an A+ from me.

To the credit of the Coral Springs school administration, when some parents wanted the teacher reprimanded and not allowed back into the class, they refused. However, school officials would not comment on their decision.

The substitute teacher had been reading a holiday storybook, and "The discussion started to move toward the existence of Santa Claus," said a school board spokesman. "No policies or rules were violated, but she obviously used poor judgment." I strongly disagree. But I'm more concerned that a licensed psychologist with Child and Family Psychologists in the area, said the role of Santa Claus in a child's life is

. . . to be an incentive for good behavior. Santa has a positive connotation that holds some weight in a child's life. It's the belief that if you do the right thing for its own sake, you will be rewarded.

Hold on. These kids aren't behaving just because it's "the right thing"! With the Santa Claus myth in place, they know all about being rewarded! They've been made very aware that the "good" kids will get gifts, the "bad" ones, won't! Who's deluded here?

Ah, but either in its fear of censure or its higher wisdom, to make up for the teacher's foray into truth, the school district sent a Santa to visit the school's kindergarten classes the next morning to - in their words - "set the record straight." "This is going to be awesome, a really good way to fix what happened," one parent said. Right. Then in a few years, that parent will tell her kid that she lied to her, that an actor was even sent in to firm up the lie, and that the teacher was wrong in telling the truth to the class.

A school district spokesperson assured shocked parents that the visiting Santa, with a natural, full white beard, should convince even a classroom full of skeptics. "He's the real deal," he said.

That man needs some enlightenment. Perhaps he should ask his mother....?


Reader Roy Berg of Los Altos, California, observes:

. . . another argument is that astrology is just another kind of " -ism", racism, sexism etc. Placing people in the stereotype boxes of astrology is no more defensible than using the boxes of race or sex or ethnicity or whatever. Illustrative of this is an announcement I saw on a university student housing bulletin board some years ago. Along with the usual info, it said "No Virgos or Leos please." It had been posted there for several weeks without comment. However suppose it had said instead, "No Jews or blacks, please." There would have been howls of justified outrage. But the phrases are really equivalent, and based on nonsensical racial or astrological ideas.


Man, this "over-accurate measurement" thing we've been discussing, crops up everywhere! Just last week on the NBC Today Show I heard a chap report that his doctors had ascertained that he had burns over "17 percent" of his body. Just how that figure was arrived at, I cannot imagine. That's a major topological problem....

And, reporter Hillary Mayell, for National Geographic News, December 5, in an article dealing with the famous "Bermuda Triangle Mystery," went into details of the most important of the supposed items in that matter. She wrote: "Five TBM Avenger Torpedo Bombers carrying 14 men took off at roughly 2:10 in the afternoon that day...." The "five" and the "14" are specific item counts, but the time would be more properly designated as, "shortly after 2 in the afternoon," unless we get a definition of "roughly." And, "[The bombers] were also very heavy, weighing more than 10,000 pounds (4,535 kilograms)...." That's followed by "....the sea floor in the Bermuda Triangle is about 19,000 feet (5,791 meters) down; near its southern tip, the Puerto Rico Trench dips at one point to 27,500 (8,229 meters) feet below sea level." I'd say that 4,500, 6,000, and 8,300 would be much better.....

Another popular item of Bermuda Triangle curiosity that Ms. Mayell mentions is rather easily explained, in my opinion, and I've often commented on it. It involves the disappearance of the S.S. Marine Sulphur Queen, a tanker bound for Norfolk, Virginia, from Beaumont, Texas, carrying 15,000 long tons of molten sulfur in four metal tanks heated to 275 degrees F. The tanker was last heard from on February 3, 1963, when it routinely radioed its position near Key West. The only sign of the ship ever found, we're told, was a single life jacket about 40 miles SW of its last known position.

What's not usually reported, is that this tanker was in decrepit condition, it was on its last scheduled voyage, and it was due to be scrapped. It ran into rough weather in the Gulf of Mexico, and in all probability simply capsized as a result. Its highly dangerous and unwieldy liquid cargo would have exploded upon contact with the surrounding water. But, say the believers, what would happen to that huge solidified mass of sulfur, which as we all know is a fluffy, yellow powder, insoluble in water? Surely it would float in on some beach somewhere like a mountain cut loose from Hades?

Here we have an example of too little knowledge of the facts. Sulfur, when melted, has a specific gravity of about 2 - depending on the form - which in this case would be lumps of the suddenly solidified "amorphic" variety. That's twice as heavy as water, and it would sink immediately, just as a rock would! Now where do you suppose the cargo of the S.S. Marine Sulphur Queen is? Guess!

The National Geographic News article ends with a suggested site, Bermuda Triangle for Believers. Why a separate site is required for believers, in what is supposed to be a scientific journal, escapes me...


That reminds me of a comment sent me by one of my myriad of detractors, demonstrating his misunderstanding of the real world:

There is a difference between a scientist and a sceptic. A true scientist has an open mind, rather than setting out to disprove something because it doesn't fit in with his theories. Sir Isaac Newton, despite being credited with Newtonian science, was an astrologer. When someone asked him how he could believe in astrology, he replied, "I, sir, have studied it, you have not."

While Newton was undeniably a brilliant man, one of the most productive and perceptive of scientists who ever lived, I have no problem with the fact that in some respects, he could be simply wrong; in regard to astrology, he was. But please recall that Sir Isaac made his living at astrology, too.

My main objection to the above commentary, is this: there should be a very strong streak of skepticism in any scientist. That should be an intrinsic part of the scientist's program, to doubt until and unless validation is produced. And we at JREF, as we've said so many, many, times before, have never "set out to disprove" anything. We have only challenged the claimants to prove their claims. We have no "theories" at all, so it cannot be said that something doesn't fit in with any views we hold. We simply ask to be shown.....


Reader Larry Coon calls our attention to yet more wonder and celebration of our species' cleverness....

I enjoyed this week's commentary (as always), including Henrik Herranen's commentary about the science involved in seeing an eclipse. But I was disappointed to see that the most important part had been left out.

Through science, we know when we see an eclipse that a dragon isn't eating the sun, and that nobody has to be sacrificed in an effort to make the dragon drop its prey. We don't mistake it as a sign from God of an impending calamity. Nobody dies from fright, as did Emperor Louis of Bavaria. Nor is there panic in the streets as the faithful fight one another to be first in line for the confessional, as happened in France in 1560.

Through the scientific advances of people like Copernicus and Kepler, today we understand celestial motions so well that our fear of the unknown has been replaced with fascination and awe at the true nature of nature. Better still, we are able to calculate future eclipses so well that people like Henrik can know months or years in advance to be halfway around the world, in the middle of a foreign desert, at a precise moment in time to experience this fascination and awe first-hand. That, to me, is the most important things science has contributed.

Okay, Larry, but I can't find any eclipse occurring in France in 1560, and one that came close wasn't on the day nor in the year that "Louis the Pious" died. The amusing but not dependable site you refer to as the source of your information, also cites a trick attributed to Christopher Columbus in 1504, in which he is said to have hornswoggled the dumb island natives he was dealing with. That, too, was fictional, and the story might have been derived from a similar event related in Mark Twain's "A Connecticut Yankee In King Arthur's Court."

My, my! Misinformation everywhere!


The strange pursuit of spirits, paganism, and every sort of pseudo-science and quackery by Cheri Blair, wife of the British Prime Minister, have generated much discomfort in that country. The list of weird beliefs the Blairs follow, seems endless. On vacation on Mexico's Caribbean coast last summer, the couple smeared each other with melon, papaya and mud from the jungle, and then let out primal screams of "purifying agony." When they moved into number ten Downing Street - the official Prime Minister's residence - they called in a feng shui practitioner who rearranged the furniture. Cheri wears a "magic pendant" known as the BioElectric Shield, which is filled with "a matrix of specially-cut quartz crystals" that surround the wearer with an "energy cocoon" to stave off evil forces. And every Briton is aware of the acupuncture pins that she sports in her ear.

(We Americans shouldn't get too amused. That "BioElectric" pendant was given to Cheri by Hillary Clinton!)

Cheri is said to be devoted to an 86-year-old guru, Jack Temple, who advertises himself as a "homeopathic dowser healer," as a result of his discovery of some magic stones. He displays these at his home, forming a "Neolithic stone circle" which, he says captures the healing energies of the stars, Sun and Moon and redistributes them to his paying customers. Temple assures clients that the stones are the real thing; he knows because he dowsed them with a magic pendulum, of course.

He says that each of the sixteen stones can relieve stress in different parts of the body. He stores those healing powers in the leaves of wild strawberries, and he sells a small packet of leaves for £10 (about $15). Blair's guru says he's "helped the lame to walk, the barren to conceive, and the sad to smile." "I've been able to re-inflate the lungs of children previously condemned to a life constricted by asthma. I've even seen the bald pates of middle-aged and elderly men begin to spring hair growth again," he says. How could Mrs. Blair fail to adore this man, especially after Fergie and the late Princess Di also acclaimed him as a healing genius?

These hare-brained beliefs are hardly found only in the minds of the British upper-class. In January of 1999, for instance, the UK government recruited a feng shui consultant, Renuka Wickmaratne, to discover a magical way to improve inner-city estates without raising taxes. Said the guru, "Red and orange flowers would reduce crime, and introducing a water feature would reduce poverty. I was brought up with this ancient knowledge." Three years later the Government announced that, for the first time since the creation of their National Health Service, "alternative remedies" could be granted the same status as conventional treatments, despite the absence of any evidence that they might cure the sick. According to the Sunday Times, "The inclusion of Indian ayurvedic medicine, a preventative approach to healing using diet, yoga and meditation, is thought to have been influenced by Cheri Blair's interest in alternative therapy."

Prince Phillip, we're told, has been a subscriber to "Flying Saucer Review" since the magazine began publication in the mid-1950s, and it's well-known that all the royal family has endorsed and used homeopathy for many generations. It's only natural that a commoner like Cheri Blair would want for herself any of the advantages that are enjoyed by the Upper Classes.

I hope Darwin's processes are still at work in the UK....


Good friend John Atkinson of the UK, commenting on the "Noah's Ark" brouhaha here, observes in his pragmatic way:

Regarding Noah's Ark, I've always wondered how all the animals ate when released. Two lions, and two impala. What do the lions eat until the impala breed? Likewise with all predators. I'd watch out if I were you, Noah, there could be a couple of VERY hungry alligators around somewhere....

John, I'm still wondering how Noah - at age 600! - managed to get these critters together from all over the world!

I recall that once, a visitor queried us at the JREF about how we could possibly explain the miracles so celebrated in the Bible, and triumphantly brought up the loaves-and-fishes story, asking, "How could all those people be fed with so little food?" My friend Jim Gardner innocently suggested to him, "Small portions?" Now why didn't I think of that?

Several other readers pointed out what Paul Mundy did about the Ark matter:

Re the Christian email correspondent of the 13-Dec-02 Commentary and his "how it could have been" explanation of the number of animal "kinds" Noah took onto the ark, did Noah take one pair of beetles onto the ark (Gen 6:19) or seven pairs (Gen 7:2). Also can the correspondent explain what process has produced 250,000 (and counting!) different varieties of beetle in the subsequent 4,000 years? WOW - that's more than one new species of beetle every week!

Would he also care to specify what "kinds" from the Ape family went on board the Ark? Was there just one (which de facto would have had to have been Homo Sapiens), or did monkeys, chimps, orangutans and gorillas get on board also (in which case his "kinds" argument goes out the window)? After all, chimps and humans do have over 98% of their DNA in common.

These matters are too much for my tired brain, Paul. Remember the old saying, "Never try to teach a pig to sing. It wastes your time, and it annoys the pig."


Here's a photo of one of our speakers at The Amazing Meeting, coming up in just six weeks (!) It's Jerry Andrus, with an illusion of his that you'll see "in the flesh" for yourself. And that's just one of his winners....

Incidentally, the AM registration has now passed 175, and it's getting filled up, so if you intend to be there, call, write, fax, or e-mail us and get on the list. Just as I wrote this, two new registrations groaned in over the fax....!


Reader Ian Lamothe Brassard, of Montreal, Canada, has sent me this quotation from fantasy author Howard Phillip Lovecraft, a thought with which we will close this week's page:

I certainly can't see any sensible position to assume aside from that of complete scepticism tempered by a leaning toward that which existing evidence makes most probable. All I say is that I think it is damned unlikely that anything like a central cosmic will, a spirit world, or an eternal survival of personality, exist. They are the most preposterous and unjustified of all the guesses which can be made about the universe, and I am not enough of a hair-splitter to pretend that I don't regard them as arrant and negligible moonshine.

In theory I am an agnostic, but pending the appearance of rational evidence I must be classed, practically and provisionally, as an atheist. The chances of theism's truth being to my mind so microscopically small, I would be a pedant and a hypocrite to call myself anything else.

No, the fat guy in the red suit won't be sliding down the chimney this year, either, folks. But I hope that you'll all manage to keep the spirit of the season, enjoying valued friends and sharing your good fortune with others. See you next Friday....