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Blaine Revisited, That Astrology-Validating Site, Twain Revisited, JREF Break-In Averted, Sylvia Abandoned, Psi Tech in a Hurry, "World's Most Documented Psychic," Aussie Wisdom!, and Geller Off Key.....
I recently encountered your website while trying to explore the "Street Magic" of David Blaine. I watched a video of him performing "Street Magic" with my girlfriend and we quickly disagreed on his abilities. Being a lifelong skeptic, I was critically analyzing his tricks from the beginning, while she had a more "objective" view. We both agreed that some of the things we saw were unexplainable. She, however, thinks that this proves that they are magic, while I think that this proves that they warrant more investigation. Pause: as used above, the word "unexplainable," perhaps Mr. Karam will agree, should really be, "unexplained"? I assure you that we magicians have explanations of all of them....
I ran into your website and this led me to your books, which contain exactly the information I need to back up many of my claims. They have helped me to disprove many of the phenomena that she claimed were real or unexplainable. A success, in this case, but being a constant critical analyzer, I can't help but question my own logic. Here is where my questions lie: Mr. Karam, everyone has a need, a basic urge, to solve puzzles that present themselves. Most of these are natural phenomena, and are directly amenable to straightforward analysis. However, conjuring performances such as those of Mr. Blaine require a different approach; they're different because here you have a human designer behind the puzzle. The puzzle is set up and accomplished purposefully, with art and cunning, to confound your ordinary perceptions of how things occur. Of course you want to know; we all do. But don't spin your wheels. Apply a "sideways" approach, and you'll do better. I've perhaps said too much.....
The other question I have may be going a little too far. Have you ever applied your twenty points from the beginning of "Flim-Flam" to religions other than TM? I find many of the excuses in your 20 examples in the explanations of my recently converted Muslim friend. For example "Mohammed was illiterate, and therefore wouldn't have the ability to create something as complex as the Koran," which is exactly the same claim about the young girls' abilities in the Cottingley Fairies affair. There are countless other similarities. I find it hard to be respectful of his religious decisions when they are so obviously based on irrationality. To make it worse, he has challenged me to find weaknesses in his argument, and I have delved into disproving a religion practiced by a fifth of the world. Wrong approach! It's not your place to "disprove" anything. You're not making any claim. He is, therefore he's the one who should be providing the proof. If someone says he astrally visits Venus, I can't prove he doesn't, and I don't have to; he has to prove that he does. Those 20 points can be applied many ways and in many places.
I have considered breaking his arguments down and placing them in your twenty points as part of my counter-argument. I am a little worried about the consequences of doing so, but don't think I will be able to help myself. Do you have any insight into religious arguments like these? Have you ever tested or investigated people who claim religiously-based miracles? How do you go about this carefully without taking on the role of the Devil trying to bring doubt to a believer's faith? Well, miracles are subject to the same rules as all other claims. Prove it. It's that simple, no more. As for doubt, that's often a by-product of thought, and thinking can be very injurious to perfectly swell notions. Obviously, religions don't offer evidence, just rules and "laws." But where they make claims that can be examined, those aspects can be looked into. That's rare.
Last week we gave you an interesting site http://www.cryptoclast.org/Opinion/astrology/reverse_astrology.htm that many of you visited. Clare Zimmerman of San Diego did, and comments:
Oh my god! The backpeddling in this site is unbelievable. Immediately at the end of the test it says that if your test does not match your sign, then you are wrong about when you were born!! Instead of perhaps learning that their test (and we can extrapolate to astrology itself) is bogus! This is what I got when I took the test: Reader Jim Moore was glad that he discovered the site:
Great link: I found that my parents have been lying to me about my birth date for the past 51 years! Thank god I found that out...
Well, on the "reverse astrology" matter, I also heard from Cameron Raecke again, the one who originally suggested the possibility of setting up a site that would demonstrate the fallacy of the basic astrological notion. Carmen tells us:
In this week's commentary, you point people to a "reverse astrology" site, saying that it is a site of the type that I described to you in an earlier email. I am sad to report that this is not the case. What the reverse astrology (RA) site does is to guess one's astrological sign based upon the author's readings of astrological websites and textbooks. Comment by Randi: Yes, probably. But in Emily's case, the TT people had said that they could detect the "human energy field," and their whole claim rested on that ability to first detect it, then "shape" it. Therefore, when they failed to show they were able to detect it, their entire claim fell apart. With astrologers, we get many different claims. Some say that they can predict lucky and unlucky events, but don't say a thing about personality traits. My point is that you must design a test based on the actual claim being made. Mind you, if an astrologer claimed that one's astrological sign is directly correlated with one's personality traits, Cameron's test would be just fine....
Another major difference between my proposal and the RA site is that the RA site doesn't use questions from any accepted personality test. It simply has a long list of characteristics, such as "ambitious" and "blunt," and the user is asked to rate himself or herself according to how well that descriptor applies to them. There are serious questions as to how well this test gathers accurate information about people. That is a problem, and would be a valid rebuttal in the face of a negative result. This is why a standard, accepted, psychological personality assessment test should be used. Randi: Serious problem here. To get any of these people to agree to accepting anything, is next to impossible. We've shuttled back and forth among recognized modalities with them, endlessly, and in some cases had to give up. But I'm interrupting Cameron's comments.....
A third problem with the RA site is that it does not tally results. I looked at the source of the page, and no data is submitted to the server. All of the calculation is done on the user's browser, so there isn't even a way to see how accurate the site's guesses have been with large numbers of test-takers. Oh, and if you want to see something funny, enter in no information whatsoever (all of the values are initially set to "0," the neutral response), and click the button to calculate your sign. The site claims that you are definitely every single sign, yet definitely not any of them. On top of that, it claims to have succeeded in guessing your sign based upon this. I think there's something a little screwy with the math. Cameron then goes on about what he thinks that site should do, and I have no arguments with him on that matter. However, I've decided to spare you all those details. He concludes, "As you can see, my proposal was really nothing like the RA site linked to in this week's commentary." Apologies, Cameron. You're quite correct, and I appreciate the input.
Reader John Dulak shows us that the recent Mark Twain reference here was somewhat differently worded from what we published. It's always interesting to see how slight mis-quotes can sometimes change meaning. I like both ideas, but the following is what Twain intended. Writes John:
The quote is from "The Dammed Human Race Was the World Made for Man?" It is included in the excellent collection of short Twain items "Letters From The Earth" edited by Bernard DeVoto. The entire quote follows: (Twain's numbers are almost a century out of date but he expresses the spirit of his thought as only he can.)
Examine this close-up photo I took last week of the keypad outside the door of the JREF. Now, we're very well protected here, with an excellent security system in place, and it's properly used. However, I recently noticed the appearance of the keypad and concluded that a clever would-be intruder could determine the 4-digit access code. Can you?
This will be interesting!
A reader whose name I've lost (!) submitted this item:
Maestro, concerning the depths to which those "scientific" cable channels will stoop in order to titillate the mass of viewers, I noted a couple of years ago (when I was reviewing TV for a weekly alternative newspaper) that both The Learning Channel and The Travel Channel presented programs in the same week which included segments on the Amityville Horror case. The Learning Channel, which most TV watchers assume is factually valid, never mentioned the fact that the Amityville brouhaha was exploded as a hoax long ago, while The Travel Channel, which has a vested interest in making vacation destinations seem more romantic than they are, openly admitted that there are no spooks in the "horror" house and ghost hunters should stay home and not make pests of themselves. Hmmm. Cryptozoology is a very valid, active, and productive science. It's really worth having Junior take a look at, so he can see reason and logic at work....
Greetings. I have been reading Mr. Randi's commentaries for about a year now, and occasionally emailing him with short questions and such. At one point I mentioned to him that I used to be a member of Sylvia Browne's religion, but wised up and left. This seemed to intrigue him, so he asked me if I would write a short article about my reasons for leaving. I thought about it, including the hatred I will engender from her "groupies" (as someone once put it) as well as the probable snipes from ultra left-brain thinkers, and decided what the hell I don't really care what either side thinks of me, anyway. Randi: Just a small pause here. It's very refreshing to have input from someone like Christine who puts it all up front for examination. She establishes her philosophy, her beliefs, and her credentials, with no apologies, and moves on. My kinda girl! I'm disturbed by her comment that "there's no one who's going to convince me otherwise" about her convictions, because she's effectively saying that contrary evidence will not change her opinions, but that's her stance, and we must respect it. She continues:
Sylvia's religion is called The Society for Novus Spiritus, and informally as the Gnostic Christians. Registered as a religion in California, it is structured much like the Catholic Church: it has reverends (as opposed to priests), bishops, and cardinals, who can perform legal weddings, funerals, etc. While Sylvia doesn't have a title per se, she's basically the Pope "our spiritual leader," as they say. There are two actual formal groups, one in Campbell, CA, and the other in Renton, WA, with remote devotees all over the USA and other countries. I hesitate to call them "churches" or "parishes" as they meet in rented Masonic Halls and operate out of offices located elsewhere in both cities. Randi notes: be aware that this "opening up" is often expressed by those who get into such movements, but that also includes involvement in Alcoholics Anonymous, the YMCA, Parent-Teacher groups, as well as bridge, chess and Mah Jong clubs. Christine, as she relates here, was in a vulnerable and sensitive position. In my opinion, she may have simply accepted her obviously new circumstances, with the community support she now had, as evidence of expanded perceptions. Just an observation. She continues:
Unfortunately this is where the major holes began to be very apparent. It's hard to comment on this article. I'm glad that Christine is out of Sylvia's hands now, and I hope that she continues to develop her independence and courage. Next week, I hope to feature another story from a former Sylvia devotee, I think much stronger than this one. I'm just checking it out now....
Reader Jaime Arbona quotes from last week's web page, the description given by PsiTech of their own abilities:
Technical Remote Viewing is a highly structured skill developed by the U.S. Dept. of Defense for the purpose of supplying adjunct information on intelligence gathering missions. Jaime suggests they continue with:
And this is the reason that we were able to prevent 9/11 before it happened. And we know exactly where Bin Laden is. We just don't want to capture him so our IAUT (intelligence-agents-under-training) can practice with real-world scenarios. Another Psi Tech quote comes from Charlie Cotterman. In reference to the Washington-area snipers, they said:
PSI TECH will continue to work this case as time permits... Charlie comments:
As time permits? AS TIME PERMITS? People are randomly being slaughtered, and these highly-trained psychoactive paragons of the paranormal are going to find the killer AS TIME PERMITS? Yeah. I can't picture Psi Tech being so busy solving other pressing problems that they couldn't help us with this one. The bottom line is that they were wrong, anyway. Maybe there's a lesson in there somewhere....?
Visit http://oberon.spaceports.com/~astrocat/index1.html. It's "Devoted to the exposure of the direct-mail astrology industry, including clairvoyants, psychics, astrologers, parapsychologists, lucky charm vendors, numerologists, tarot readers et al." It's a pretty sad story of how people can get sucked into paying the soothsayers fortunes and getting zilch, nada, rien, nichts, and nothing in return.
Reader Bruce Gemmel reminds us that Canada's Anthony Carr, self-proclaimed "World's Most Documented Psychic," probably won't be documenting the prediction he made about actor Richard Harris: "Richard's cancer will go into remission; the third Potter film wins him industry-wide applause." This confident item appeared in "Stargazing" (a column written by Carr and Tony Brenna in the Toronto Sunday Sun) on October 27 two days after Harris died of cancer. But major "documented" fiascos are nothing new for Mr. Carr. He predicted in 1955 that a major political/athletic figure would be assassinated at the 1996 Summer Olympics. Funny, I don't remember that. In 1996, the stars above told Carr that the Irish "will be coming into their own, generally. Everyone will want to think, dress, and act Irish." I don't think I've even got a green necktie. And singer Madonna, said this astute prognosticator, would be "establishing herself as a real 'star' and as a dramatic actress, in the blockbuster 'Evita,'" for which she'd even win an Oscar. That film bombed big-time, and Madonna doesn't like to discuss the matter, thank you. Said Carr in 1997, "Legendary actress June Allyson will make an appearance, along with James Stewart, in a special anniversary special commemorating the mysterious disappearance of revered 1940's band leader Glen [sic] Miller." James Stewart died the same week this prediction appeared. Anthony Carr said that actor Christopher Reeve would "rise from his chair and perambulate" in 1999, and that O.J. Simpson would "either admit his guilt in 2000, or new evidence will prove that he is a murderer." Carr predicted in the January 5, 1999, issue of the National Examiner, that Muhammad Ali would make a miracle recovery from Parkinson's disease, that an iceberg the size of California would threaten to wipe out Hawaii, and that Carolyn Bessette-Kennedy would give birth to twins. She died in the plane crash with her husband. Did it ever occur to Anthony Carr that he should either (a) stop documenting his guesses, or (b) find a more suitable line of work?
Egads! Zounds! I was scolded for my ignorance of UK soccer, again! I'm told that a draw is not a loss, that teams get 3 points for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss. Total points at the end of the season decide positions. I was misinformed; it seems that I was misled by referring to the bookmakers, who for payoff purposes define a draw as a loss. So, for Geller's team Exeter, it's now won 4, drawn 4, lost 9. Still doesn't sound too good, to me. I wonder why?
Shawn Bishop notes this about Bearden, the "free energy" machine inventor:
When a person writes as much nonsense as Tom Bearden, the question is inevitably asked as to whether they are self-deluding or deliberate charlatans. The comparisons between Tom Bearden and L. Ron Hubbard are striking. Both are former US servicemen (Hubbard in the navy, Bearden a Lieutenant Colonel in the army). During WW2 Hubbard was relieved of command of his submarine chaser after an inquiry found (in as many words) that he had fantasized an incident off the coast of Oregon in which he had successfully attacked and destroyed two Japanese submarines.
Brady J. Phelps, Ph.D., is a behavior analyst and Professor of Psychology at South Dakota State University. He recently found out that John Edward would be performing at Omaha, Nebraska, at $45 a pop, and wrote me asking advice on how he might discover the Edward routine. As it turned out, very little that I suggested could be used, except that I told him to take along a concealed tape recorder. Next week, we'll have a report from Brady on the outcome of that visit. It should be very revealing.....!
Adding to the anthropocentric view of astrologers that we discussed last week, reader William Rucklidge offers us this lyric excerpt from the show "At The Drop of Another Hat" by Flanders and Swann, that wonderful UK musical comedy duo:
Jupiter's passed through Orion,
Aussie Tom Dullemond submits this satisfying news item put out on the news.com.au website on the 31st of October:
Alternative Therapies Crackdown Those last five words are the most important. We can only hope that this new attitude will be put into effect with vigor, and that the powerful, well-financed, quackery lobbyists won't manage to water down the legislation or get it reversed.
Reader Derek Heron writes:
I live in the town of Falkirk, Scotland. We recently had a visit from Uri Geller. He was here at the invitation of Mr. John Walker, a local historian. The background to the story can be found by following the link http://uk.news.yahoo.com/021023/17/dcc2p.html
Remember, those special room rates are limited. And since some have asked whether they must be accommodated at the Renaissance, the answer is, no. If you have other places in the area where you can stay, that's just fine. But you really should try the Renaissance. It's a winner. We've now worked in two general panel discussions, which will probably be heavily attended. That's always been my experience, at such gatherings. Nothing like a good free-for-all, down-and-dirty, no-holds-barred, riot! There will be telescopes set up the night of the 1st, for astronomical viewing. I see that Jupiter and Saturn will be up for us, and they're superb objects to see "up close." We'll arrange for clear weather. Sylvia says she'll do that for us.....
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