David Copperfield just may have gone over to "the dark side." In Germany, on October 13th, a sealed prediction he apparently made seven months earlier, was opened and inside was the sequence of lottery numbers for the national lottery drawing. David told the press quite clearly that it was a special ability he had, not a trick. Now, this is a standard mentalist's trick. I have a description of how Copperfield did it, and it's definitely a trick. I'm surprised that he didn't even have an original method of doing it. And no, I'm not going to reveal the secret of the trick. Just take my word for it.

Why? Copperfield naturally received a lot of inquiries from the gullible, as a result of his deception. Said he, "It was incredible. Hundreds of e-mails, so many letters and requests from people in despair. There were so many people in tough situations, with debts and similar problems." I need not give you my opinion regarding this callous manipulation of the public — people upon whom David Copperfield depends for his success and prosperity.

Copperfield told the press, "It wasn't a trick . . . it was more an experiment and mental exercise. We only use about 10 percent of our brain capacity." Well, this just isn't true. It's one of those "urban legends" that we all hear and tend to accept. He went on to say that he doesn't participate in lotteries because he finds them boring. He even said that he isn't tempted to play the lottery himself because then he wouldn't be able to "see" the numbers. Now, you can easily say that only silly people would believe that a man who knew the winning numbers wouldn't have bet on them, but there are a lot of folks out there who don't even get that far in their reasoning — if they employ any reasoning at all. Copperfield's excuse? "I used to try it out by giving friends the numbers, but then it would never work . . . If the numbers aren't kept secret, it doesn't work."

Oh. I see.

I've received a couple of notes from readers suggesting that the "psychic Magazine" on the Internet that I referred to last week, is a joke. Well, maybe. But when I look at pieces written by such really serious (and seriously deluded) persons as John Benneth, Earl Curley, "Riley G", and Dan Kettler, I see equally nutty — and nuttier — material. Until I'm disabused of the notion, I'll believe that the "magazine" was seriously intended. If it's a joke, it's a doozy.....! Ted Debiak, President New York Area Skeptics (http://www.nyask.com) says he's convinced it's a hoax. Hmm. Looks like typical, classic, psychic flapdoodle to me....

Reader Walt Owen reminded me of the fact that the JREF made an offer to the Florida Attorney General to properly test "psychics" when his office issued a regulation that all 1-900 telephone "psychics" in the state must sign a paper attesting that they are really psychic. A.G. Bob Butterworth told us there was "no way to test psychics," which rather surprised us, since we're doing this all the time! Walt supplied us with this bit from www.psymag.tripod.com's editorial page:

Everybody knows that crime is up. The police cannot catch criminals as fast as they commit crimes. There is an easy answer to this problem staring us in the face, if the politicians and courts were simply willing to accept it.

Psychics should be allowed to testify in court regarding the guilt or innocence of a person. This would speed up the criminal justice system, and would result in more accurate administration of the laws. Of course, there are some fakes who would glow in the limelight, and give inaccurate psychic readings to judges and juries. If this were allowed, then innocent people would be convicted, and guilty people would go free.

Fortunately, this problem is solved easily by requiring all psychics to be certified by a psychic certifying agency or company. This would keep the frauds out, and would insure that only the best psychic witness services would be offered to the courts. It is time our politicians woke up to the grown problem of crime, and accepted this very simple solution.

Walt offered: "I hereby nominate the James Randi Educational Foundation as the Official Psychic Certifying Agency! Any psychic you approve I will be willing to allow to testify in a court of law...."

Right on!

Reader Brandi Weed informs us that here's an excellent sequel to Mackay's book that we wrote about last week, titled "Ponzi Schemes, Invaders from Mars and More Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds," by Joseph Bulgatz. It has a great chapter better explaining the Dutch "tulipomania" as well as ones on soccer crowd riots, cults (cargo and otherwise), dowsing, and financial scams like the Ponzi scheme and its relatives, and the Florida land boom.

And, hallelujah!, the MacKay book is available on the Internet. Go to http://promo.net/pg/ and search for author "MacKay, Charles."

A few readers commented on the conviction that paranormalists have about "negative vibes" interfering with psychic forces in operation. One wrote, ". . . it seems remarkable that there is very little hard research on the subject by parapsychologists." Au contraire. Look in any parapsychological book under "Sheep and Goats Effect," and you'll see that they have done a lot of research on this. The pre-eminent researcher in this aspect is psychologist Gertrude Schmeidler, who in the 1970's tested whether believers got better results doing psychic tests than skeptics. Guess what? They found it to be true that believers got much more positive results.....

And, the skepticism will work against the "powers," they say, over any distance, backwards and forwards through time, directed or not directed. Seems rather a universal damper....

Following last week's item on my "sabotage," I got lots of requests from readers for copies of the map to Uri Geller's house. Sorry. Fresh out. Next time I put a whammy on him, I'll print extras.....

Reader Michael Wright of Norman, Oklahoma, tells us that "Astro-Insight" is part of the professional astrology webring. He gives us the first paragraph of their prediction for the month of September, 2001:

Compared to August, the month of September is likely to be relatively a lot less stressful for most of the world, especially from natural and man-made accidents, terrorism, and violence standpoints. Also, after the first week of September, expect some relief to the volatile region of Israel and Palestine.

This sort of sage advice is available via http://www.astroinsight.com. Reader Wright did not point out to me that in typical shilly-shally manner, that same site also told readers that

Except for the first 10 days of the month, pretty much the entire month is going to be filled with events that have to deal with both man-made and natural calamities, especially for the United States, and to some extent both the continents of America.

While man-made calamities may manifest themselves in terrorism, unrest, violence, and accidents, the natural calamities are likely to include extreme weather conditions such as severe cold winters in the northern hemisphere, and equally intensive droughts in the southern hemisphere; and thunderstorms, earthquakes, air crashes and fires.

Note, please: Some items in this latter part of the prognostications for September, directly oppose those stated earlier! In summary, this guess on the events of the month is a total wash-out. But let's see what is predicted for the rest of this month. This site tells us that

. . . the administration is likely to be rewarded with a very positive break in this war on terrorism matter during October 17-31 period.

Well, we'll see.

Reader Kyle Drexel sends us this bulletin: "I just thought I'd let you know that . . . ghostly activity is suppressed by the presence of cell phones. Or at least that's the position of the Society for Psychical Research's Tony Cornell. Apparently, the use of cell phones in the UK has gotten so rampant, it threatens the `haunted' status of many British landmarks. Silly me, I had always thought ghosts were suppressed by an education."

Several folks have chided me for saying last week that Muslim husbands "own" their wives. Well, perhaps I was a bit overboard there. It's true that families do work out long and involved marriage contracts between the couple, and in Taliban country the women are essentially non-persons, but at least Afghan women gradually gained rights in the first decades of the 20th century. They also helped write their country's Constitution in 1964, served in parliament and the cabinet, and were diplomats, academics, professionals, judges and even army generals. And Pakistan even had a woman Prime Minister. Bottom line: the Taliban is not Islam. It is a perversion of Islam.

If I offended, I apologize. These are tough times.

Hoping to take at least some humor from a bad situation, and to point up the true nature of the Taliban, I'll repeat here what I think is the ideal way to handle Bin Laden, when (and if) we ever capture him. Just shooting him would make him a martyr. Imprisoning him would result in terrorist activities to free him. We should shave him, perform a sex-change operation on him, then quietly return him to the Taliban in Afghanistan, where no one would listen to him, he'd be invisible in a head-to-toe sack, he couldn't have an opinion, and he would be owned and beaten by some guy with a beard.....

Taken straight from the current "Shadow of a Doubt," the monthly calendar of the National Capitol Area Skeptics (NCAS), comes this news item:

WANT FREE ENERGY FOR YOUR HOME?

Dennis Lee has been lecturing around the country promoting his free energy device. He is scheduled to be in this area for a free lecture on November 12th at University of Maryland, Clarice Smith Performing Arts Center, Tawes Theatre, College Park MD 20742. For a skeptical view of his devices, the Philadelphia Skeptics organization (PHACT) has an interesting website: http://www.phact.org/e/dennis.html. Lee's message is "it is our passion and goal to achieve the conversion to a non polluting energy source. We have worked hard toward that goal & suffered many setbacks. Our opposition would have you believe that we are just liars, but we do NOT promise when it will happen, only that it WILL happen." A few skeptics at his meeting can't hurt.

Agreed! If you're anywhere near the area on November 12th, I urge you to attend and present Lee with some appropriate questions. He's a master of evasion, and seeing such an artist at work can only sharpen your skeptical talents. And do look in on the PHACT website.

Also in the NCAS calendar is an excerpt from the Seattle Weekly, an article written by Mark D. Fefer, "LEARNING WITH THE STARS — Inside the country's first college of astrology."

This week, in a central Seattle classroom, several dozen students and teachers are reviving an academic subject that's been scorned, vilified, and banned from universities for the past four hundred years or so. Kepler College of Astrological Arts and Sciences is now in session.

Kepler claims to be the first institution of higher learning in North America authorized to offer degrees in astrology — an authorization it received from the Washington state Higher Education Coordinating Board last year. The school is mostly a "distance learning" program, in which students read on their own and consult instructors by e-mail. But three times a year, the students and faculty gather in Seattle for a week-long symposium. This week, the school's inaugural class is back in town for the first symposium of their sophomore term, and a dozen new students have arrived as freshmen.

I hope you'll want to let the Washington Higher Education Coordinating Board know your opinions about this. Reach them at www.hecb.wa.gov or at their postal address, 917 Lakeridge Way, Olympia, WA 98504. This is a disgrace, a step backward into medieval thinking. It has nothing to do with "Higher Education." Again....

Here's a suggestion from a reader:

I'd like to make a book recommendation that may interest you and your readers: "Psychology of Intelligence Analysis" by Richards J. Heuer, Jr., published by the CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence http://www.odci.gov/csi/books/19104/. The book is available at US Government bookstores; the complete text is also available online at the link above. Although the book's target audience is government intelligence analysts, the material is germane to anybody who must evaluate information that may be incomplete, incorrect, and dynamic — attributes that apply to a great number of situations in life. The book discusses the cognitive processes we use to analyze information, the flaws in those processes, and how to improve them. Here's a quote with which I'm sure you'll agree:

"People have a natural tendency to concentrate on confirming hypotheses they already believe to be true, and they commonly give more weight to information that supports a hypothesis than to information that weakens it. This is wrong; we should do just the opposite." (Chapter 8, p. 104)

The book is interesting in that it discusses cognitive psychology by way of a practical application, intelligence analysis. Although only a small number of your readers probably have this occupation, the book is nonetheless an interesting and educational read.

I am going to share with you a letter from a remarkable teacher in China. We will call him simply, Alfred, and he lives in Shanghai. British-born, he teaches advanced English there and shares much of my skeptical attitude, though, as he will tell you, he tends to be somewhat more tolerant than I. Alfred obviously has a deep love for his adopted land, and I think this message will interest you, as it certainly did interest me, from many different points of view....

Dear Mr. Randi,

I have been living in China for many years now, and as a perpetual student of the Orient as peculiar to China, I stumble across many oddities — or at least those things that we Westerners might find odd or intriguing or quaint as they remain largely unrevealed to us.

Recently I bought for peanuts two rather astounding electrical devices, both functional, that work in a remarkably clever way and are claimed by most local people to have been an essential part of the Geomancer's kit bag, in that professions heyday. I thought you might be interested to hear of my little treasure and my delightful quest to discover how these machines work — as they do still "work."

[Randi comments: "Geomancy" is the term that describes such ideas as "feng shui," which prescribes the proper orientation of buildings, the locations of windows and doors, the arrangement of furniture, and the colors and shapes that are most conducive to balancing elements they say are essential to human contentment and good health. It also includes divination by means of geographical elements of the landscape, clouds and other meteorological phenomena, and nature in general.]

The first machine is a rather beautiful piece of furniture I found in a small merchant's village near Kunming. It is a lovely three-foot-high dark wood cabinet with brass trim having several ornately hasped doors in its front. An accompanying unit, which one attaches to a socket in the top of the cabinet, consists of a four-foot, nicely carved wooden pole that has a brass disk of ten inches in diameter attached at its top. Upon opening the main panel in the cabinet, one sees a beautiful brass plaque inscribed with lovely Chinese ideograms that describe the operation of the switches, dials and meters inside. Literally translated to English (which I always find endearing), the machine is labeled as "The Nearby Wonderful Spirit Vapor Detector."

[Randi comments: This last reference is not necessarily mystical, but may be a poetic way to describe clouds, lightning, or some other natural phenomenon.]

Amazingly, after cleaning and tinkering with the machine, I am able to determine that it works extremely well — and it does what it says! By measuring the capacitance in the air it indicates rather accurately, cloud formation in the surrounding atmosphere! The large, illuminated almost "Mad Scientist-type" meter in the inner panel actually shows the degree of capacitance and therefore the `strength' of the electrical capacity potential in the air!

According to my part-time research efforts to-date, I have discovered that this ingenious device, introduced in limited quantities in the 1930s, is still used by many of the most highly regarded Geomancers in China! Additionally, I was able to find and restore two more of these machines for my collection and, after engaging the services of a local electrician friend, I find that they all now work admirably, mainly due to their simplicity.

Another, equally aesthetically beautiful machine, sports a 'glowing globe' inside its beautifully carved facade. It works in a similar fashion, but its stated purpose is to glow whenever lightning strikes occur in the region, yet may be too faint to hear or detect audibly. Amazingly, it works rather well also, and is serving as a great conversation piece.

By patient interviewing of village elders and tradesmen, I have been able to document that both these fabulous devices were used to support evidence of "spiritual presences," good or bad, the subsequent "proved existences" of which required one to immediately employ the geomancer's services to provide the proper "Feng Shui" charms, altars, and talismans necessary to "appease and make peaceful" those restless spirits and to provide a "spiritual harmony" for one's business or home. The addition of the "telling of" an approaching storm or lightning strikes served admirably to cement the practitioner's authority!

I must say that, as a true old romantic, l absolutely adore these quaint beliefs and charming, old-world rituals and I might be a bit more gentle when debunking them (as I try to do), with perhaps a degree less aggressiveness than most of your adherents. However, I certainly agree that those more harmful cults that exploit common human weaknesses, insidious and cruel in their greed and self-serving, should be attacked quickly and mercilessly (and as brilliantly, with such good humor, as you do).

As you can no doubt tell, I am fond of collecting curios that go a bit beyond the typical Chinese vase or painting. Should anyone be interested, I am endeavoring to create properly translated technical diagrams of these "wonders" and can make them freely available if wished, though I say this with hesitation, as you may already know of these types of devices and they may not be "news" to you at all. Also, it takes some pains to get photos or drawings into the computer, so any wishing for such should be patient. Originally, I was prompted to write you as I thought perhaps your "Junior Skeptic" pages would like to know of such curious and interesting old machines that were no doubt used once to impress various wealthy clientele. . . . Interestingly, even today, Geomancers here in China make an admirable living. Were I to be less than myself, I truly believe I could make quite a fortune!

[Randi comments: Though I write for SKEPTIC Magazine, the "Junior Skeptic" part is not mine. I wish I could take credit for this excellent feature.]

Anyway, I thought you might find my little discoveries interesting. I . . . don't get away from my Shanghai house as often as I would like to, but . . . I still manage now and then to reach those remote, hidden villages and little-known areas of this vast and astounding land, hence my sometime success in finding such unique curios during my researches. Aided by my ability to speak fluent putongua [or p'u-t'ung hua, the official spoken language of China], I sometimes hear many remarkable tales.

I might add that I teach part-time here and it is merely by the grace of my students that I am now able to access the Internet from my home and read your wonderful articles. I have been an admirer of yours for a very long time and have been an avid reader of Skeptic magazine since its inception . . . it is so far impossible to find it here.

To conclude, I am so very content these days to while away the evenings browsing your web site, and I applaud your excellent efforts. I'll have you know that, among the many English-speaking Chinese young people in my classes these days, you are enjoying quite a popularity — I think perhaps due to the degree of pragmatism in this younger generation and their inherent disdain for faith-based doctrines or "mystical" causes and events.

I hope you will forgive this lengthy missive and I certainly hope to hear of your eventual trip to Shanghai one day, so that we here can visit with you and enjoy one of your wonderful lectures.

Sincerely, Kind regards, "Alfred."

I believe that Alfred is exhibiting here his understanding, forbearance, tolerance, admiration, and awe of this ancient culture in which he has chosen to work. He treats me kindly when he says that he "might be a bit more gentle when debunking [the Geomancers] . . . with perhaps a degree less aggressiveness than most of [my] adherents." I'm sure that's the case. He can, and has, shown his perception of the subtle difference between science and "magic," and the fact that — as Sir Arthur C. Clarke once said, "Any sufficiently advanced technology, to the uninformed observer, is indistinguishable from magic." I believe that we have, in these machines, and the Geomancers' use of them, an interface between science and magic.

China brought us many wonderful advances in science and technology, and I'm excited to now know that this little discovery — or adaptation — by early investigators of the unknown, has been brought to light. That, and lo mein..... But don't get me started on the cuisine.....

I hope shortly to have illustrations of the machines to share with you, and I've remedied the paucity of Skeptic Magazine copies in Shanghai by shipping off a huge box full of them to Alfred. And in December, my China trip will be adjusted to allow for a day in Shanghai.

This subject has my rapt attention, I assure you. Or had you guessed?