The millennium dumb stuff is well under way. In March, there will be a major conference of prominent scientists in Darmstadt, Germany, to discuss the current furor over the Cassini space probe, which is due to swoop close to Earth in August, coming within 730 miles of our planet on the 18th. Cassini is powered by 72 pounds of plutonium, and the Greens (evironmentally tuned, to say the least) are quaking at the possibility that Cassini will dump the load of Pu on us.

Well, chances of that are very, very, slim. The Cassini mission is an exciting one, very sophisticated, and very well designed. Its approach to Earth is a planned manoever that will "sling-shot" it off to Saturn, where it will arrive in 2004. But be assured that I'm not going to be hiding under my bed in August.

The reason it interests us so much at JREF is because Sandra Dawson, who works with JPL as their Media Risk Communication Co-ordinator, informs us that this giddy group of scientists in Darmstadt is going to discuss whether Michel de Nostredame--Nostradamus, to you--knew all about this potential disaster 'way back in 1558 when he penned one of his few prophecies that actually included a date--a practice that most prophets eschew simply because it can't be rationalized away when the event doesn't occur. Wrote the Seer of Provence, in Century 10, quatrain 72:

L'an mil neuf cens nonante neuf sept mois
Du ciel viendra grand Roy deffraieur
Resusciter le grand Roy d'Angolmois.
Avant apres Mars regner par bon heur.

(There are several variations in spelling and accents.)

In English:

The year 1999 seven months
From the sky will come a great King of Terror
To bring back to life the great King of the Mongols.
Before and after Mars to reign by good luck.

Now, the scare-mongers are bleating, that is most assuredly a direct prediction of the Cassini craft falling to Earth. Really? Well, aside from the fact that Nostradamus is probably the most-failed prophet in history (see my book, The Mask of Nostradamus) and we have no reason to believe that he will do any better with this quatrain, the seventh month--even in Provence--is July, not August. And Cassini (1625-1712), whose name the space probe bears, was an Italian astronomer. No connection with Mongolia, so far as we can see.

But facts, as always, never deter the fanatics. JPL actually has to produce a brief statement of facts, not only on the Cassini/Nostradamus connection, but also on the coming solar eclipses (a partial one February 15-16, a total one August 11) and the 1999 "planetary alignment," one of many such that take place from time to time. That a responsible agency like JPL and a sensible person like Ms. Dawson should have to issue policy statements on such juvenile notions, is frightening. Where is our common sense? This group in Darmstadt would do well to clearly state that superstitous fear has no place in science, and get on with whatever proper discussion of any Cassini threat there might be.