In the London Almanack Ephemeris for 1698, an astrologer named John Gadbury appears to have been alarmed by the fact that his horoscopical blunders were being noticed and pointed out by detractors. He stated the general rules of operation that he would henceforth embrace. Said he,

I ever did, and ever must own myself a Man, and subject to Error, as are all the Sons of Adam, though not all alike; and can accuse my self of greater Faults, than any malicious Enemy can lay to my Charge. 'Tis more Easie, than Pleasant to me to retort the Failings of those that have been the most invidiously Industrious to clamour against me for small Mote-like Escapes, if but compar'd with the Beam-like Blots themselves have shamelessly set for any Man to hit. But I have matters of better concern to mind, than Contention.

To conclude, I resolve for the future to overlook all Scurrilous Reflections, and never mind them, or their Authors, being sorry that formerly I entertained a Thought that there was any need thereof. I will hereafter make the Motto of EPICTETUS my own; viz: Bear and Forbear. And rather than Anti-bellow it with Beasts and Bethlemites, will bear their Reproaches, and forbear to concern myself with them. But still continue....

In less flowery and seductive language, Mr. Gadbury is saying that he's in trouble and is following the method used down through the ages to handle embarrassing fumbles; he decides to ignore them as being from lesser forms of life, and thus beneath his attention. In this century, dead-speaker John Edward adopted this ploy as well when he was recently challenged with the JREF offer of one million dollars, which he could win if he would allow a test by us of his claimed powers. Answered his press agent: "Mr. Edward does not respond to criticism." Well, that settles it!

Back in 1698, Gadbury also announced another intention he would follow in his predictions based on his horoscopes:

Misfortunes I shall ever study to avoid.

Translation: "I've not the faintest idea whether anything bad — or good — will happen, so I'll give cheerful, vague, predictions of a vapid nature."

George Pequegnat, of Ontario, Canada, relates this tale of disillusionment....

As an avid reader of your website and others that appeal to my natural skepticism of all things "paranormal," I finally worked up the nerve to tell you the story of my experiences with the people who call themselves homeopaths, naturopaths, etc. It isn't very flattering to the profession either.

First some background: In early 1998, I was diagnosed with an acoustic neuroma. . . . If left untreated . . . complications could be serious. . . . my ex-wife is a believer in all things natural, and she spoke to some people who called me to come visit them for "natural" treatment.

On the first visit they brought me to a "medical psychic," who we'll refer to as Madame X, to be examined. She tried to perform a classic cold reading (I learned that from the web sites) and started asking me all kinds of questions. Well, needless to say, I asked her, "Why all the questions? Are you not seeing what's wrong?" She replied that she wanted to make sure nothing else was wrong with me. So I lied. I figured, what the heck, she'll know I'm lying.

Well, after two hours of "laying on of hands," "examining the aura," and really bad "new age" music, she proudly proclaimed that I had a growth in my head and it was caused by some extreme "negative energy." She also missed the location of the growth but glossed over that by using all kinds of excuses about how my aura "wasn't too bright." Hmm. I might have been offended if I weren't silently laughing. I said that I already knew of the growth. What else did she see? She replied that I needed to have a professional remove the negativity and restore my karma to normal.

(I found out later that the guess she made about the "growth" was so accurate simply because my wife had given her staff a very detailed description of what was wrong, including web links to the condition! In spite of all this, she got the one high-odds question wrong. She had a 50% chance of guessing the affected ear and lost out.)

Naturally they had fully trained and qualified staff on hand to help me. I asked her about staff qualifications. The reply? They had undergone "karmic transformation" from a famous yogi. Ok, whatever. Now came the sell. She asked me if I were serious about getting rid of the tumor. Well, I wanted to say, "Of course not! I like this damn thing growing in my head!" Instead I replied a simple, yes.

Well she said that they could guarantee success of the treatment, and that their rate of cures was close to 100%. And if I didn't get cured, she said, I could have my money back. The treatments might take up to two years of twice-a-week visits, total cost: about $15,000 CDN. I explained that in two years I would probably be dead or severely disabled if the treatments didn't work, and wouldn't be able to collect on the refund. She never batted an eye. She was cheerfully telling me that nobody had ever asked for their money back, so I shouldn't worry. That in itself worried me. I went home to consider and explain to the wife why I thought this lady was a total nutcase. My wife talked me into going back one more time.

Second visit, I told her that I just didn't have that kind of money. She started with the usual slamming of those greedy, money-grubbing doctors who wanted to keep me ill so that they could buy Jaguars, and hospitals that keep you there to collect from insurance companies, yadda, yadda, yadda. And, why should I spend all that money there, when I would suffer needless pain, and she could cure me painlessly (except for my wallet of course, that would hurt).

Anyway, she offered to demonstrate some techniques for free, so I said what the heck, let's go for it. The first thing they did nearly broke me up laughing. The healers (as they called themselves) stuck a scented candle in the affected ear, lit it up and chanted weird stuff while swaying back and forth. I was imagining they were singing "Happy Birthday" in Sanskrit, or something. Afterwards they tried to sell me all kinds of strange (extremely expensive) medicines made from things I have never heard of or was unable to find on the Internet.

The next step was "massage therapy," in which all they did was move their fingers close to me without touching. I felt like a fool with two women looking like they were scraping things off my clothes while singing. Needless to say, I escaped from there as quickly as I could, and as a bonus only $20 lighter.

Apparently they have a network, because over the next few weeks several other naturopaths called offering their services. Every time I explained that it was too expensive, the price went down. My mailbox got stuffed with flyers and informational pamphlets about their so-called abilities.

Eventually I did get the tumor removed in a standard operation . . . by a very competent professional. . . . I did experience pain and some side effects, but in the end all is well and there is no regrowth. I thought that was the end of it, but nope...

About three months after the surgery I got a call from — guess who? — Madame X. This time she put a new spin on her pitch. She said that she was very disappointed that I elected to use conventional medicine to remove the tumor. If I had waited three more weeks, she said, she could have arranged a session with a fellow who removes these things with no surgery. She had a video to demonstrate, if I wanted to see it. How he planned to go through two inches of dense bone and remove a tumor from a channel less than a pinky finger wide, is beyond me, but then I'm negative — remember? That's why I got the damn thing in the first place.

She also had a "vision" about the tumor regrowing on the nerve. Well, I was happy to report to her that my MRI came up negative, and besides, they had removed the nerve so it can't possibly return. Not so, she said, her visions were rarely wrong and it seemed that my health had been showing up often in her visions. We must do something about it now, before it was too late, she said. This time it wouldn't be too expensive.

At the very least, she told me, using her medical knowledge and skills with natural medicines, she would regrow the nerve, restore my hearing, and get rid of the tinnitus. I was being sarcastic when I said I was impressed that she could do the impossible, something that medical science is only now studying. Well, she enjoyed the compliment and asked me when would be a good time for an appointment. Oh yes, and I should bring cash or a Visa card.

I never did make that appointment and only stopped getting junk mail and calls when I moved. Later on, after reading up on these idiots on sites like yours, I finally realized how dangerous they can be. She had been perfectly willing to allow me to possibly die just to make some cash. Of course if I died, then it was probably my fault for being "negative."

Now when I hear people talking about angel pictures, ESP, and psychics and so forth, I just can't keep quiet. My experience has really left a sour taste in my mouth. I sincerely hope that here in Ontario the homeopaths never are allowed to dispense medical advice.

While I'm at it, I could tell you about how a chiropractor told me he could cure me by spinal manipulation (for $10,000) but heck, I'm sure you that know the entire profession is based on unscientific quackery.

Please keep up the good work and I sure hope Ms. Browne gets back to you before Doomsday.

Not much hope of that, George. The poor dear is just so busy floundering around on TV talk shows, she doesn't have time to snap up the million, it seems. Gee, I just noticed: it's now been 284 days since she made that promise.... That's more than nine months! Human babies are conceived and delivered in less time....!

A reader only identified as "Paul" puts in this very valid complaint about the nonsense that he had to go through while being "educated" in Clinical Psychology. This is typical of what students with common sense have to learn to ignore, but must nonetheless put time on, to keep their jobs and obtain their degrees. Paul is understandably angry at the ignorance of those for whom he should have respect.....

I work for a community mental health/chemical dependency clinic in a small town in upstate New York. I began working here about a year ago fresh out of graduate school with my Masters in Clinical Psychology. As much as training in Psychology is about mental processes, behaviors, thoughts, and emotions, these days it's about strong training in research methodology and, more broadly, the scientific method. (A brief aside — my Experimental Psychology course viewed your NOVA special in class one day)

I have always been a skeptical person, and my difficulty working at this agency over the past year will become apparent to you very quickly. One of the first days I came to work, I overheard my Supervisor — or as I like to call her, Stupervisor — giggling with a co-worker about how her husband is a this-or-that astrology sign, so how that explains why he was reacting a certain way to whatever she was joking about.

Fast forward a few months. I find myself in the middle of an agency that advocates acupuncture as a means of recovering from drug addictions. How is acupuncture used to remedy these addictions? It is said to "detoxify" the body, as well as help one relax. Being a skeptic, I was quick to challenge all of the tenets of acupuncture (ironically while I had to sit through acupuncture training — to learn how to do the garbage — spending countless hours rolling my eyes learning about "Chi" and how the Ancient Chinese were such wise people). My trainers often referred to how acupuncture had been "proven" and, how it has been around 3,000 years so there must be something to it (just like there is something to Jesus Christ being the son of god — must be, his legend has been around for over 2,000 years).

I have challenged all of the mythology, to no avail. I demanded research — and after months and months I received six articles from "The Journal of Acupuncture" and one from "Alternative Medicine." All the while I've been assured this procedure is "proven." The advocates of acupuncture go so far as to say that "acupuncture works in spite of the self" — so when a patient tells me acupuncture does nothing for him I'm supposed to say, "It works whether you know it or not."

Why don't people notice the difference right away? I'm told it's because people have layers around them like onions — and it takes time to work through the layers. People who become more and more involved in treatment are said to be shedding layers — I say they are getting used to being here. Oddly enough, there are no ways to measure the layers. To bolster her claims, the main acupuncture guru here relies on certain phrases she belches out like "the entire state of Florida" and "the entire state of California"know it works and are behind it.

She even has a little electronic device she holds up to someone's ear and an alarm sounds, as well as a light, indicating the precise location of the "shen men" point. (I would love to know how the device really works). Oh yeah, we use the ear because it's "hard-wired to the brain." She will even go so far as to say that MRI's have been done on brains and you can see the changes instantly as the points are needled. That's all fine and good, but an MRI is a static picture, like an X-Ray. She must mean PET scan, but I digress.

Like any fool in the "alternative" areas, and like religious zealots who spout off catch phrases like "god works in mysterious ways," this guru has back-peddling and circular reasoning for everything. "Acupuncture works in spite of the self," yet I raised a case of someone who's been doing it for months and has had no effect, and she responded that "maybe he's not someone it will work for." She proceeded to say, "Think what you want, but I know it works — it might not work for everyone — maybe not 50%, maybe not 30% — but it works." Her standards are a little less stringent than mine. My alpha is usually set at .05 — apparently hers is adjustable and even a 10% hit rate — equal to a placebo perhaps, is good enough for her.

I have raised this issue as a concern. Phony "medicine," they insist is a medical procedure, and not some esoteric mumbo-jumbo. I have been assured that acupuncture was made a permanent fixture here by an administrative decision, and is therefore "not up for review." I've asked for research from neutral, reputable journals — and I'm told it exists, that there's "plenty," but I haven't seen any. So I'm left stuck — myself against an entire agency of softminded believers, except for only one or two others. I only have to put up with it six more weeks — then I'm out of here for my doctorate.

This is a sad commentary indeed. A few quacks on a high level have made decisions to promote pseudo-medicine in their training procedure, and to inflict it on their patients. Where is an agency that will look into this horrendous state of affairs? If you know, inform me. My appeals have been ignored.

Kevin Kusinitz of NYC writes:

I'm a newcomer to your site, although you've been on my radar for years (I mean that as a compliment). While reading through your archives, I came across a piece on Chinese medicine. Several years ago, my mother visited China. She and a few others in her tour group came down with colds. A local doctor gave them some medicine which apparently "cured" them. In fact, they felt great almost immediately. She brought home what was left and gave it to my brother, a doctor, to analyze.

The main ingredient? Cocaine. Now that's a cure!

While visiting a Chinese pharmacy, she saw another medicine called "Ass Glue." I shudder to think what that was for, or what was in it.

Kevin, that was very probably "hide glue," regular glue prepared by boiling animal hides — including those of asses. It might just as well have been labeled, "llama glue." A matter of translation, I believe. Though it does make one wonder, and various pictures do tend to flit through one's head....

Well, the "Amazing" Kreskin is up to his old tricks — and I mean that quite literally. He's fond of making stunning announcements, and the media fall over one another to report on his utterances, especially when the news-of-weird-stuff hopper has run down.... The Las Vegas Review-Journal last week asked, "Was it a UFO?" when George predicted a major UFO sighting would occur in Vegas on Thursday. Poor Kreskin delared that he was "so shaken by what happened, that I will never do this kind of scenario again." We can only hope....

The local ABC-TV affiliate filmed what Kreskin claimed was a sighting at about 11 on Thursday night near the Silverton club, where Kreskin was currently appearing. Said the ABC commentator, "Some people who are susceptible honestly believe they saw some things out there," but he himself was underwhelmed by the event. While Kreskin claimed that "more than three dozen people became hysterical," that might be a trifle hyperbolic. Kreskin estimated a crowd of "1,000 to 1,500," while ABC-TV had it closer to 300 to 500. Whatever the actual number, the gathering had all but dispersed when a green light appeared overhead. Wow!

But it was airplanes. "It was an unusual (green) light for an airplane, I'll give them that," said the ABC commentator. "But it was in line with all the other airplanes that were coming into McCarran [airport] at the time. We were standing almost underneath the south and north approach pattern. . . . If he claims there were UFOs, it's bogus. If he's claiming that people in their minds thought they saw something they couldn't explain, then he might have a case."

Kreskin had made the stunning prediction during a Fox-TV network appearance in late April and had agreed to turn over $50,000 to six children's charities if it didn't occur. In his perhaps prejudiced and befuddled mind, that green light was a shipload of aliens coming in to unload shekels, drachma, yuan, or whatever currency they could manage, at the gaming tables. Yawn.

The Review-Journal quoted the Other Amazing as saying, "Never in my wildest dreams did I imagine that the prediction would come true!" Umm, I have a problem with that. I leave it to my readers to figure out why.....

Last week I suggested that readers look at the learned analysis of a quack device being sold in Australia, then, after reading it all, reconsider the "toaster test" described there by author Dan Rutter, for a point he just might have missed, a variable that could be important. I received many suggestions, many of them well developed, but not the one I was thinking of.

Every morning, as I cut off a few slices of delightful French bread and pop them into my toaster (one of the "oven" style, slices lying flat) I notice that the one already-exposed bread surface, assuming the loaf was already started, toasts rather differently from the others — because it has become a bit dryer. Mr. Rutter, I believe, should have selected or cut his slices from the center of the loaf, to ensure more consistency....

Lacking time for experimentation this week, I show here an illustration that is definitely not French bread....

Sure, not an Earth-shaking observation, but typical of my curmudgeonly character....

Last week we missed the Internet broadcast simply because BellSouth had favored us with another failure of their Internet connection, which made me personally so crazy that I messed up the re-connections needed to get "on air." I apologize. Lots of messages from the folks "out there" who missed us, so it makes us all the more aware of our responsibilities to be there when you call on us.

An idea has been suggested, that the JREF should hold a conference here in sunny Fort Lauderdale sometime soon. We'd particularly like the opportunity of getting some of the 2,491 persons on the JREF Forum, together. We can set up hotel arrangements and lots of other good stuff if we have some idea of how many are interested in such a project. If you're interested, please go to the Forum, under "JREF Banter," and thence to "JREF convention." It's a poll....