April 2, 2004

Orange Lights In the Night, The Mole & Malcolm, Astrology Pays Well, Sedna Discussed in Depth, Democrats in Trouble, Surrounded by Naivety, A New & Provocative Site, John Stossel Is At It Again, Prime Error, Alternate Explanations, Where's the Metal, Psychic Premonition Fails!, Another Strange Person Applies, Regrets, Invocation of Higher Physics, and In Conclusion….


Table of Contents:


ORANGE LIGHTS IN THE NIGHT

Reader M. Alice LeGrow offers this creepy story:

I thought you might find this anecdote amusing....

I've been off my normal sleeping schedule for weeks, trying to make the crunch on chapters my editor needs ASAP, and so I've gone to bed at very odd hours. I was very surprised to notice that at approximately 4:15 am every morning, a penetrating orange light would fill my ground-level window, and go blink-blink-blink-FLASH, over and over, then suddenly disappear.

My first thought was a police car, but I live in a very rural area where police activity is unheard of, and orange isn't a police light color anyhow. The light always spooked me, but by the time I'd summoned up the courage to get out of bed and look out the window, there would be nothing there except the usual darkness.

I posted this occurrence in my online journal for my friends to ponder, along with the oddity of my desk clock repeatedly setting itself back by fifteen minutes every day. Of course you know what happened next. Everyone started yelling "ALIENS!" and instructing me not to go to sleep at that hour of the night. I got several entertaining bits of advice from "abductees" and other nuthouses, telling me that I was Chosen and the aliens were warning me of a time when I would soon be carried off.

A year ago, I might have almost believed it, but I thought at least I had a little more sense than that by now. So the other night, I waited up in my breezeway with a flashlight to see if I could spot the orange lights again.

I'm sorry to report that no UFOs landed. No spooky green men appeared to cart me off to who knows where and implant memories for John Mack to later find. No brightly descending silver ships of intergalactic intelligence burned holes in my front lawn. The orange safety light belonged to the mail truck that delivered the early morning paper.

Seriously, it's always rewarding to hear about this sort of epiphany. Thanks, Alice. Now it's easier for you to understand how some folks experience something that sends them off on a paranormal tangent from which they never recover because the truth about it is never revealed to them. This is a leading source of all sorts of "ET" and "ghost" stories that are of course then snapped up by the media and amplified and metamorphosed out of recognition. When I asked Alice's permission to use this anecdote on the page, she kindly responded:

Sure, I'd be honored. And maybe others will learn not to fear the mail truck as I have.

My kinda girl!


THE MOLE AND MALCOLM

Readers will recall the name Malcolm Roe (at www.randi.org/jr/090602.html) who, after being closed down by the FBI here in the USA, moved off to the U.K. and changed the name of his fake "locater" device from "Quadro" to "The Mole." The Quadro was a hi-tech-appearing dowsing rod that had non-functioning electronic parts epoxied into it, and could be "tuned" to the "DNA of bullets," among other fatuous claims. It appears that Roe invested the money he made selling this scam to the U.K. Royal Corps of Engineers (RCE), in a night club: The Club and Spa at Glynneath, in South Wales. The Mole sold to the RCE for £13,000 (US$24,000) a pop, and guess what, it didn't work! I offered the JREF million-dollar prize to any member of the RCE, knowing that they had received training to use it, but they ignored me. I wonder why?

The Glynneath club featured a floor show, and one artist who had played there, contacted me:

My name is Ray Ronson and I'm a stage Hypnotist. I was booked to perform my act on the opening night at the Club and Spar in Glyn Neath (proprietor Malcolm Roe) in early 2002. As well as obtaining my fee for the performance, my wife and I were offered free membership to sample the delights of the new venue. Having visited several times, we got to know Malcolm and eventually about his little "gadget" that he claimed he invented. He also mentioned that he'd given a demonstration to the local Glyn Neath police force. The demonstration involved locating the premises in which the local drug dealers hid their "stash." Malcolm claimed the demonstration took place upon a local hilltop and was successful. Whether the police actually busted the premises, remains unknown.

Eventually Malcolm actually showed me "The Mole," gave me a demonstration which involved locating an object hidden in his car, and told me that if ever his car were stolen he'd always be able to locate it. He then taught me how to use "The Mole." I was told to hold it by the molded plastic handle with my arm straight and bent at the elbow with my upper arm positioned straight down and sort of tucked into my hip, and I was successful in locating the hidden object in his car. The pointer thing led me to the object.

When I got home I did some experiments myself and discovered I could get the same results using a piece of wire inserted into the case of a ballpoint pen, and also when using Malcolm's "Mole." I knew where the target object was, anyway — in Malcolm's car — and from what I know now, "The Mole" appears to be just a glorified dowsing rod that a child can make.

I've just remembered, in one of our conversations with Malcolm, with several people present, he said he knew a scientist in Ireland who had successfully traveled back in time and taken photographs of his parents' wedding! Also, Malcolm was adamant that gravity didn't exist.

Needless to say, none of this surprises me one bit. People who are involved in these farces are usually believers in everything. The Tooth Fairy, Easter Bunny, leprechauns, elves, goblins, all owe their existence to the juvenile notions these people nurture. Man, I'd love to test Malcolm's conviction about gravity! Just show me the closest cliff….

I'd suggest to Ray Ronson that where he writes, "The pointer thing led me to the object," he might better have written, "I pointed the rod toward the place where I knew the object was located." This is the ideomotor reaction in place, the subconscious moving of a poorly-stabilized device. See www.randi.org/library/dowsing/

Next week, you'll see here another item on dowsing notions, showing that the genuine believers in this fallacy will not only dedicate their lives to following the chimera, and will refuse to do double-blind testing in case it destroys their delusion, but will gladly beggar themselves in the process….


ASTROLOGY PAYS WELL

Remember astrologer Jonathan Cainer who I mentioned two months back? (Look at www.randi.org/jr/022004demons.html.) In case you were concerned that he's poverty-stricken, I thought I'd provide you with information on his current income. He's been bouncing around various UK newspapers who have vied for his incredible talents. In 1998, he was receiving a mere £75,000 ($140,000) annually, plus 50% of the earnings from the paper's "hotline" astrology service, to titillate the readers of the Daily Mail. That "bonus" amounted to some £100,000 ($185,000) extra, but Jonathan apparently still felt swindled. He quit the Mail and joined the Express, where he was given 75% of their hotline proceeds. We can only imagine his income, at that point. Next, the London Mirror wooed him with even more money, but too late to stop him from popping back to the Mail, for a cool million pounds ($1,850,000) a year.

People are always asking me if I've ever thought that maybe I was in the wrong end of this business. The thought has crossed my mind….


SEDNA DISCUSSED IN DEPTH

Do take a look at http://forums.fark.com/cgi/fark/comments.pl?IDLink=877081 for a very entertaining discussion….


DEMOCRATS IN TROUBLE

"Psychic" Sylvia Browne last year offered a grab-bag of her expected dizzy predictions, among which were her forecast of the death of Saddam Hussein by the end of that year, "a Democratic president" being elected in 2004 — un-named, possibly because Kerry had not by that time come out ahead of the pack of hopefuls — and the "possible eruption of a volcano at Yellowstone Park" before February 22nd of this year. "I think the whole thing is gonna blow," she said, brightly. Well, it didn't, Saddam is still alive, and Sylvia only has one stunning guess to go, for a perfect negative score: the election of John Kerry to the White House. Based upon her miserable rate of failure over the years so far with prophecy — she said that in 2000 Democrats would win the election with Bill Bradley, with close competition from the Reform Party — I think that Democrats should now abandon all hope….


SURROUNDED BY NAIVETY

Reader Andrew Schaur comments:

It should come as no surprise to you, but it never fails to amaze me how even a rumor of information can be the basis of a "fact" in some people's minds. Two examples from my life come to my mind.

About a year ago I was in a conversation with a guy who suddenly piped up with, "Did you hear that the patent office just approved a patent on a device that lets you talk to the dead?" He was really excited about this device. Holding back the stream of insults building in my head, I casually asked him where he heard that. Naturally, he couldn't remember, but he thought it was on the news. All I could do was tell him that 1) he should find out more about it, because he would learn that 2) it was silly BS, and that 3) I was done talking to him. He wouldn't let me excuse myself, and vehemently insisted that this device was real. As a puzzling afterword, he quickly explained what it was that he found so riveting: "Can you imagine what this is going to do to the Catholic Church?"

More recently, I walked into my office into the middle of a conversation between several of my coworkers. In fact, the first thing I heard was a woman say, "You know, the male Y chromosome is weaker than X, and in 125,000 years there will be no men anymore." I listened as a flurry of badly misinformed concepts of evolution were thrown around the room from various people, but to my surprise, no one disagreed. One person's broken theory was proof enough for everyone else in the room! Of course, I chimed in and said that it wasn't true. (Technically, I didn't KNOW that it wasn't true, but thanks to Stephen Jay Gould, I do know that you cannot predict the turns and twists of life's changes). Her response to my disbelief: "It's true, there's a book out about it now." She hadn't read the book. She didn't know the author. She didn't know the name of the book.

For most people — non-skeptics, at least — skepticism somehow means pessimism. But in truth, skepticism starts with just knowing what you know, and more importantly, knowing when you don't know. What passes for truth and fact in many people's minds is appalling, and I want to thank you not only for your tireless pursuit of frauds and quacks, but also for giving me insight into these urban myths and phony theories that circulate through my daily life.


A NEW AND PROVOCATIVE SITE

I suggest you may want to look in at: www.churchofcriticalthinking.com


JOHN STOSSEL IS AT IT AGAIN

Radio host Paul Harris, a good friend, writes to tell me (used with permission):

Thought you'd like to know that the audio archive of our recent conversation on my radio show has been the #1 most-accessed file on my website this month (well over a thousand unique users have listened!). There will probably be more visitors after the comments I just added about last night's John Stossel special. You no doubt are familiar with it, but here's what I had to say today, direct from the front page of HarrisOnline.com:

Tuesday, March 23

Kudos to John Stossel for last night's "20/20 Special Edition: Myths, Lies, and Downright Stupidity." Among other topics, he tackled the lie that psychics have helped police solve crimes and find missing persons. In fact, there has never been a verified case of this occurring, no matter what Sylvia Browne says. Stossel exposed how Browne and others, purely for their own gain, exploit the emotions of family members at the lowest points in their lives.

The worst was a woman named Kathlyn Rhea, who calls herself an intuitive counselor. Rhea has the most evil laugh I've ever heard come out of a human being. It growled out when Stossel grilled her on information she gave regarding a woman's missing sister. Rhea gave the woman a map and told her the sister was within a 30-mile radius. She told her to look for a road that branches off like a Y-shaped divide in the road (that's every highway exit!), a building that looks like a country church (lots of those!), and something with the letter S (wow, she really narrowed it down, didn't she?). Stossel said, "We tried to follow her instructions: But there were lots of Ys in the road and signs with an S." When Stossel confronted her on the vagueness of her information, she snapped at him, (I'm paraphrasing here) "Well, they have to do the legwork. You don't expect me to do it, do you?" No, you keep the $1,800 fee for your useless information, and feel good about yourself, ya weasel!

She was involved in the search for Polly Klaas but, although her advice was of no use whatsoever, she has claimed to be the one who helped find Polly and her killer. That's deplorable.

I'll repeat my plea for law enforcement organizations around the country to start going after people who make these fraudulent claims, ripping off people at their most vulnerable time, and gaining from it financially. Isn't that the very definition of a con artist?

Some of the details from last night's ABC show are here, along with links to other less-harmful myths, such as "should you swim right after eating"? You may also want to listen to my recent conversation with James Randi, who comes right out and calls Sylvia Browne a liar and challenges her again to prove she has the paranormal abilities she keeps claiming she has. She won't, of course, because that would be the end of her business.

And, you know, Paul Harris still hasn't heard from George Noory about a requested retraction of the lies Sylvia Browne gave out on his program, "Coast To Coast," though Noory has now received copies of my clarifying data, so he knows the actual facts. George, who knows Paul very well, even went on air last week and repeated the outright fabrication that Sylvia Browne told about my refusal to put the JREF prize money in escrow. There may be a reason for Noory's special degree of muddlement on this occasion. He was interviewing Uri Geller the spoon-bender, so maybe he was star-struck and bewildered more than usual. I note that when Noory brought up my name in the interview, Geller very wisely declined to discuss that subject. He's a survivor!


PRIME ERROR

Reader Richard P. Johnson, who describes himself as "an amateur astronomer and supervisor of a public observatory," sent me a long critique of last week's JREF prize applicant who was raving about Sedna. And he corrected me, as did several others. I'd written that 2,380,981 was a prime number. I hope that not too many of you tried to find factors of it, but you could have: 79 X 30,139 = 2,380,981. Richard is quite correct about that number not being prime, though both factors are primes…. Mea culpa. It might have been 2,380,481 that deceived me, or even 2,380,951 — they're both primes, and pretty close….

Yeah, I know. "Close" doesn't count….

Where would I be without astute, observant readers…..?


ALTERNATE EXPLANATIONS

Reader Matthew Gates has his own set of possible causes for the anomalies pointed out by astrologer Russell Grant as proof that you're haunted, ten points that we posted here last week. ("DIY" stands for "Do-It-Yourself"):

1. You hear unexplained and strange noises
Cause: you have neighbors

2. Lights go on and off of their own accord
Cause: you did some DIY wiring

3. You feel or see furniture shake
Cause: This one is pretty interesting. I get visible "bus tremor" sometimes at work. Low frequency vibration seems to travel quite a long way and sets up resonant vibrations in nearby objects. I was discussing just this effect with a Danish friend of mine. He told me about a friend/relative who, on leaving for vacation left instructions for some house-sitters that they must move all the ornaments back onto their shelves a few centimeters once a week. Vibrations from traffic caused the ornaments to migrate toward the edge of the shelves a few millimeters a day.

4. Items are inexplicably moved around
Cause: you have a girl/boyfriend!

5. You see somebody in your home who shouldn't be there, probably dressed in old-fashioned clothing
Cause: you have grandparents!

6. You feel regularly feel exhausted or "heavy" in your home
Cause: you have a real job. Astrologers / dowsers might not recognize this effect.

7. You feel an unexplained pressure or heaviness in your back or kidney area
Cause: You're approaching / passed 30. Maybe my knees are haunted.

8. There is a radical temperature change in one room of the house
Cause: you need to check your window insulation. More dodgy DIY probably.

9. There are certain times of the day which don't "feel right" in your home
Cause: see item 6, above.

10. You feel very uncomfortable in one particular room in the house
Cause: you have the same sofa we do. Oh, it seemed like a good idea in the shop, but many hours of having a numb backside have testified to the contrary.

Well done, Matthew! Concerning #3, you perhaps know that elephants are known to be able to communicate by sound over very long distances — many miles — using the 20-hertz range, which is only a rumble to humans, just at the limit of our low-frequency sound perception. Do Danish buses communicate the same way, we must wonder?


WHERE'S THE METAL…

Remember that remarkable dyspeptic tirade from Michael Horn — the Billy Meier UFO supporter — from last week? Well, he's been busy firing off huge postings to everyone in reach, not that I'm surprised, and he has dropped in small bits of data that show us where he's heading in response to my offer to pay him the million as soon as he provides the "otherworld metal" evidence he says he can produce. First, we discover that he doesn't actually "have" it. He won't say who does have it, but it's not he. What a pity! And we were so close! Ah, but even if he actually had the evidence, and submitted it for examination, that would not mean anything, as he warns his buddies:

Likewise, assuming that the evidence passed all tests, they [the skeptics] would then raise the bar again and say that the tests needed to be performed again, or were suspect for some other reason or, well, I think you see the problem.

Yes, we see your problem, Michael; it's been clear all along. It's that you don't have the evidence you so vehemently claim you do, and you won't directly address that fact. I can't speak for the other skeptics, but as you well know, I always commit myself firmly in advance, leaving no possibility that I could evade paying up. Just how obtuse are you, Horn? Are you trying to establish a new standard for density?

Andrew Hunt of Toronto marvels over some facets of our story on Horn and Meier:

Billy Meier sure is a lucky guy, being picked as the sole human contact by the Pleiadians and all. They obviously trust him a lot. After all, they let him take photos of their ships hovering and in flight, as well as letting him sketch their likenesses. I guess they just don't like their actual photos taken. Nor do they seem to like close-up photos of their ships, or photos of the interior, or photos of it docked on human soil, or photos of what the earth looks like from inside their ship (I assume Billy has at least been able to go on a trip or two — there's got to be some benefit of having friends from outer space...). Anyway, I'm sure they have their very justifiable reasons as to why those photos are not permissible.

Good suggestions for our consideration, Andrew! Yes, Billy must be some special kind of guy! Mr. Horn continues on feverishly grinding out all sorts of complaints. We seem to have him pretty worried. But I’m sure he’ll come up with the metal. Almost any minute, now….


PSYCHIC PREMONITION FAILS!

I received at least 40 notices from readers about a news story that at the Fort Myers, Florida, airport last week, American Airlines Flight 1304 was cancelled at the word of a "psychic" who called authorities warning that a bomb was aboard. A search with bomb-sniffing dogs turned up nothing suspicious, but forced the cancellation of the flight because the delay caused some of the crew members to exceed their normally permitted work hours by the time the search was finished.

Doug Perkins, local administrator for the federal Transportation Security Administration agency, said, "In these times, we can't ignore anything. We want to take the appropriate measures." I agree. The move to abort the flight was sensible, unfortunately, but it does not in any way imply that the TSA has any belief in psychic forces or abilities. This might have been a genuine threat, not just a hoax. However, TSA officials wouldn't say who the call came from. I find that disturbing. I think we should know.

Reader Ben Warden has a decidedly pessimistic view of the event, and sees the action of the TSA rather differently than I do:

I was supremely disturbed by the recent incident of a "psychic" reporting that there was a bomb aboard an American Airlines jet in Florida, which ultimately caused the flight to be canceled! Of course, nothing was found (big surprise, huh?) What happened was even more unsettling than if a bomb had been discovered — the fact that these insidious and/or deluded charlatans are taken seriously by authorities, is a sobering reminder of just how little the human species has come over thousands of years of evolution — in fact, I think it has de-evolved. It is now the year 2004, yet we continue to live in a world governed by fantasy, replete with imagined "weapons of mass destruction," politicians who consult astrologers, athletes praying to deities for victory, factions primitively and monotonously slaughtering one another wholesale in the name of "God," and a president who believes he can simply blow away age-old fanaticism, with bombs. *Cue Louie Armstrong's What a Wonderful World.* I lost my hope for Homo sapiens long ago, but I believed it still had potential. As of today, that conceit has been abrogated.

Reader Harry Schmidt, of the University of Chicago, is similarly concerned:

What bothers me is that there's no mention of any action being taken against the "psychic" for delaying the plane, horribly inconveniencing more than a hundred people, and costing the airline and the flight crew a great deal of time and money. Isn't anyone going to hold the perpetrator of this hoax responsible?

A number of years ago, at my former high school, we used to receive the occasional bomb threat that prompted the shutdown of the school. The kids who did it were almost always caught and punished, either with suspension or expulsion, and sometimes even criminal punishment. Are we now to permit anyone to get away with threats and deception if they cover themselves in the mantle of the so-called paranormal? It sounds something like a 21st-century "benefit of clergy," if you ask me. What kind of calamity are these people going to wreak before the authorities stand up and guarantee that they're punished for their callous and ultimately cynical disregard of the communities that they abuse and defraud?

I needn't comment….


ANOTHER STRANGE PERSON APPLIES

Last week, I promised you another example of the bizarre claims that applicants send in for the JREF million-dollar prize. Be sure you're seated, and try to figure out what this man is trying to communicate to us. Here's his statement on which his claim is based, spelling intact, his name edited down to initials ETP to avoid identification:

On March 16, 2004, I appeared in a dream to James Randi in a slightly different appearence and told him to write the check to [ETP]. I further stated three claims about the future: the Pope would die very soon, Osama bin Laden would be captured, and another prediction which is some months off. I asked him to think of a number and it was 17. I asked him to think of another number and it was 3. I insisted on annonymity as the "subject". This was done from my apartment in Stillwater Oklahoma in the morning of March 16. I told him to wake up and write this information down as scientific proof of a paranormal event. I told him the "Skeptical Enquirer" was one of my favorite magzines. I earlier told him that he had seen me in an audience at Oklahoma State university.

These three predictions are — in turn — highly likely, possible but unspecific, and rather vague — to put it kindly. As for his "appearances" before me, no matter how hard I rack my poor brain, I cannot recall those visits, nor those numbers, strangely enough. And, the audience at OSU was probably large enough that I can't remember seeing him there.

Not at all close, and certainly no cigar….

This application was properly submitted, notarized, and clearly printed, which is in itself a refreshing element to find. The applicant, however, seems fuzzy about his evidence, and has not stated — as required — what he can do, under what circumstances, and with what accuracy. Folks, this is sometimes a frustrating job I've chosen, but I created this monster, and I have to feed and tend it….

My response to him was:

Mr. [P]:

Thank you for your application for the JREF million-dollar prize. The statement you included as part of it, cannot be taken as evidence, since there is no method by which it can be shown that you either did or did not "appear" to me as you claim. Furthermore, I would have no reference points by which to identify your personal appearance, in any case. The three predictions you say you made to me cannot be entertained, since they are vague and/or non-specific.

Please give me a statement of what you are prepared to do for a preliminary test, what circumstances would prevail, and what accuracy you would expect. Upon receipt of this statement, we will be prepared to confer with you to design a proper protocol, time and location, for a test.

It is at this point that we might expect not to hear back from Mr. P again, judging from our extensive past experience. But we'll keep you informed if the matter goes forward….


REGRETS

I recently referred to a Mr. Montague Keen, and have just been informed that he very recently died. That must have occurred not too long ago, since we were in contact in early January. My ignorance of his demise may have caused offence, and I apologize for that. I must say, however, that Mr. Keen several times repeated and distributed a number of very derogatory and libelous canards in reference to myself, comments that he simply took from other sources without any attempt to validate them, then he refused to retract them even after he had seen the refutations. I think that was not a responsible attitude on his part. I regret that some might have been — inadvertently — offended, and I understand their dismay....


INVOCATION OF HIGHER PHYSICS

Last week, I received an inquiry about a supposed medical condition a "psychic" just knew I had. I informed him that I was not so afflicted, and he responded, in true pseudoscientific terms:

My research, while interesting and what at first glance, seems to be amazing, is apparently being influenced by me much like the "quantum observer" influences wave function.

It ends here.

Oh, no, it doesn't. People like you can be wrong, consistently, for years, and will never abandon a favored theory. The excuse offered here is a resort to the metaphysical-sounding aspects of quantum physics, freely misused and abused by amateurs. This advanced concept is dragged in to account for failures of every sort, dangled before the public by persons who don't know a proton from a protein. It's one of the penalties that we pay for having an educational system that so often fails us.


IN CONCLUSION...

There are many things that are difficult to write…. Actor, writer, Oscar-winner, and freethinker Sir Peter Ustinov has died at age 82. Fluent in French, German, Italian, Russian and Spanish, and also speaking Greek and Turkish, he is credited with a number of bons mots that I certainly wish I'd originated. One was:

It is our responsibilities, not ourselves, that we should take seriously.

And, when asked if he had decided on the epitaph for his gravestone, he answered:

Keep off the grass.

Sir Peter was one of a small — and getting smaller — group of persons that I wanted to someday meet in person. He was a delight, a fine gentleman who made us all a little richer for his being here.

This next, closing, item I just have to leave you with — emphasis mine. And remember where our President hails from….

Taken from the State of Texas Constitution, Article 1 — BILL OF RIGHTS, Section 4 — RELIGIOUS TESTS:

No religious test shall ever be required as a qualification to any office, or public trust, in this State; nor shall any one be excluded from holding office on account of his religious sentiments, provided he acknowledge the existence of a Supreme Being.

Wait a moment. Isn't an inquiry into whether one believes or does not believe the "Supreme Being" myth, a "religious test," per se? Who wrote this….?