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So you’ve seen it all over the place, in each and every unoriginal TV program, documentary and news piece regarding some supposed prophecy by the ancient Mayas and their calendar. Unfortunately for the credibility of the many self-proclaimed researchers, sloppy documentary producers, misinformed journalists and the whole lot of the new-agey crowd, the Mayas did not issue any prophecy whatsoever. Not ever.

Aztec_Sun_Stone_Replica_croppedAnd, by the way, the circular, certainly imposing monolith being photographed and videographed to exhaustion in order to illustrate the imaginary prophecy is neither Maya nor a calendar. But the tale of the Maya prophecy in itself is not too good to start with. Basically because it is an utter fabrication. A simple, barefaced lie.

In order to understand this, we have to understand the concept of how the Mayas recorded the passage of time. The central problem, which is quite confusing at first, is that the ancient Mayas had not one, but three calendars. Most Mesoamerican cultures managed with two calendars, which is still alien to our ideas of how to count the days.

The Maya developed a 260-day calendar which was used for religious purposes and events. It was called the Tzolk’in. As would seem obvious, once the 260th day is reached, the Tzol’kin starts all over again, just as January the 1st follows the end of the year on December 31. Not that you would need a Ph.D. in astrophysics to figure that one out. And each of those 260 days had a unique name. But religious festivities don’t put food on the table, so the Mayas also developed a much more reasonable (and amazingly accurate) 365-day solar calendar which they used to figure out seasonal activities and resources, such as the time to plant or harvest, or when certain fruits were in season or certain animals could be better hunted. This calendar was called the Haab’, and it consisted of eighteen months of 20 days each, plus five "dangerous" days without name at the end of the year (thus adding up to 365 days). And, yes, you of course know that after the fifth dangerous, nameless day, the Haab’ went ahead and repeated itself. No- brainer number two. And yes, each of those 360 days had a unique name.

There was also the Calendar Round, which was simply calling the days with both their names in Haab’ and Tzolk’in calendars. The name of a day obtained by joining the two names repeated itself only every 18,980 days, or some 52 solar years. 52 years was the standard Mesoamerican “century”. But you of course know that the Mayas were keen astronomers. They spent a lot of time looking at the heavens and pondering the movement of many celestial objects. And they were deeply impressed by Venus, the morning star and the second brightest object in the sky after the Moon. They called Venus Ahzab Kab Ek, "the star that awakens the Earth", and believed it was in reality the god called the plumed serpent, and plotted out its orbit around the Sun.

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It depends. Many people have a narrow view of what a survey can be. We can at least get this out in the open: most online polls are worthless (save for the ones run by universities and legitimate polling organizations like Gallup). There is no control over sample size, the questions are poorly worded, the motivation for answering is impossible to know, there is no way to judge how representative the respondents are of the general population, etc. Though it may be fun to jump onto the latest news website poll that asks whether or not alternative medicine should be taught in universities, for example, the results are meaningless.  

What I think many people fail to realize is that surveys can indeed be very scientific instruments. To throw away surveys because they happen to fit into the same cognitive framework as do online polls is to throw away much of social science. Like any science, conducting a valid survey is tremendously complex and the results hard to interpret. But, when done correctly, surveys can tell us a lot about how we think and behave.  

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The following is a contribution to the JREF’s ongoing blog series on skepticism and education. If you are an educator and would like to contribute to this series, please contact Bob Blaskiewicz

 

First-year composition classes are required at most American colleges and universities. At some schools, including the one at which I currently teach, “freshman comp” is the only class that is required for all students. Instructors of first-year writing classes are expected to accomplish a great deal: we are expected to prepare our students for writing at the college level in all disciplines; we are expected to introduce our students to college-level research (how to find and evaluate sources and how to incorporate those sources into their own writing); we are expected to teach our students how to craft a well-supported, well-reasoned and fair argument. Oh, and there are also the mechanics of writing: grammar, punctuation, diction, syntax, tone, analysis of audience and purpose.

Probably the most important part of our job revolves around argument and research: we strive to teach our students how to be critical thinkers and critical readers, and we try to teach them to be responsible writers. We spend much of our time discussing evidence: evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of potential sources and using evidence to support a strong, logical thesis. To that end, we introduce students to logical reasoning and logical fallacies.

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Here I go again. Every time I have a reason to reach back in time to bring up memories of the John W. Carson story and my relatively peripheral connection with the man, I get teary-eyed. I’m not just one of those ten to fifteen million people who tuned in at night to enjoy the great gift that he offered us. No, I actually got to sit before the cameras in his studio with him twenty-two times over the years (yesterday was the 50th anniversary of Johnny’s first appearance on The Tonight Show) – either at Rockefeller Center in NYC or in Burbank, California – while Johnny guided me through my lines and tried to make me look good.

If I had to pick out the one appearance on the Tonight show I had with Johnny that really made a difference above all others, I’d have to say that it was the one in which we exposed the trickery of TV preacher “reverend” Peter Popoff. That all came about when I obtained a copy of the original Popoff broadcast, with Elizabeth Popoff’s audio transmission to her husband synchronized and dubbed in. It had been prepared by Alec Jason, the private investigator who voluntarily did the research – and recording – for me. Alec shared my dismay at the cruel deception of this pair. I took it to producer Fred DeCordova at the NBC Tonight Show office and played it for him. Fred was speechless, and quickly alerted his staff to re-schedule an event for that night to accommodate this item. When he reached for his phone to alert Carson, I stopped him. “Fred,” I said, “don’t tell John.” He countered, “You know that John doesn’t like surprises.” I leaned back in my chair and slowly suggested: “Just think of the look John will have on his face.” Fred paused, then smiled. “Okay,” he said, “but it’s on your head!” I decided I’d take that chance…

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Here is a rundown of the top stories in pseudoscience, paranormal and anomalies news from the past week courtesy of Doubtful News.

Celebrities did their best at being eccentric this week with Simon Cowell "healing his house" and Ke$ha exploring the supernatural in NSFW (not safe for work) ways.

Two stories showed you should look a little closer at dire warnings of shortages. Neither helium nor bacon are in short supply, just expensive, right now.

The National Atomic Testing Museum is affiliated with the Smithsonian. This past week they held what appears to be a publicity event about UFO disclosure. Then, they invoked the spirit of Carl Sagan. No, he would NOT be proud, I'm sure.

  1. Last Week At Science-Based Medicine
  2. What You Can Do to Fight Woo
  3. Videos: TAM 2012 Sunday Paper Presentations
  4. JREF News & Updates for September 2012